Aim: getting information about the spots of other players and the move order --> predictions of their moves
Prerequisites: cycle move order, manual distribution, no ffa, mirrored picks for teams
-------
Basics:
-------Number of picks = <territory limit per player>(from the game settings) × <number of players in the game>
Getting the last pick number means you have full intel (move order + positions of the opponent)
Distribution of picks: ABBAAB...
Player A: has 1st pick and moves 2nd in T1
Player B: has 2nd (and 3rd) pick and moves 1st in T1
-------------------
Level - Beginner:
-------------------1v1 with 2 picks per player (QM: SE 1 wasteland)
Number of picks you make: 4
Possible pick combinations: 12, 13, 14, 23
Informations you have before T1 for:
All combinations: if you did not get 12 your opponent has the picks you missed inbetween (will not be mentioned again in later levels)
12: you dont know anything (except you see your opponent bordering your territories)
13: you know your opponent has the spot of your 2nd pick
14: your opponent has the spots of your 2nd and 3rd pick
PLUS: you picked 1st --> you move 2nd in T1 (and all uneven turns) --> you move 1st in T2 (and all even turns)
23: your opponent has the spot of your 1st pick
PLUS: you picked 2nd --> you move 1st in T1 (and all uneven turns) --> you move 2nd in T2 (and all even turns)
-----------------------
Level - Intermediate:
-----------------------1v1 with 3 picks per player (1v1 ladder MME)
Number of picks: 6
Possible pick combinations: 123, 124, 125, 126, 134, 135, 136, 145, 234, 235, 236
Informations you have before T1 for:
126, 136, 234, 235, 236: you picked 2nd --> you move 1st in T1 (and all uneven turns) --> you move 2nd in T2 (and all even turns)
145: you picked 1st --> you move 2nd in T1 (and all uneven turns) --> you move 1st in T2 (and all even turns)
How to abstract that:
Just look at the picks you got - if the 1st pick is pick number 2 or your 3rd pick is pick number 6 --> you picked 2nd and have 1st move T1
If your 2nd pick is pick number 4 --> you picked 1st and have 2nd move T1
For bigger numbers of picks (For every n>=0):
If your (2n+1)th pick is pick number (4n+2) --> you picked 2nd and have 1st move T1
If your (2n)th pick is pick number (4n) --> you picked 1st and have 2nd move T1
In other words - if your x-th pick you get is pick number 2x, you know the move order in this game
--------------------
Level - Advanced:
--------------------2v2 with 3 picks per player (2v2 ladder FE)
Number of picks: 12
Pick distribution of teams is still ABBAAB...
Adapting it to the players it is: A1 B1 B2 A2 A2 B2 B1 A1 A1 B1 B2 A2
Safe information:
you know if you are X1 and your teammate is X2 --> your teammate moves before you T1 OR
you are X2 and your teammate is X1 --> you move before your teammate T1 by figuring out who of you both get the pick with the lowest number
Since you can see all positions of your team lets assume this is a 1v1 and you break it down to ABBAAB...
Now you might be able to use the abstraction from the last level to get the move order
Case A: you find out you are team A (team with the 1st pick) --> it's hard to tell who has which spot since both opponents get each 1 pick between the picks of you and your teammate but you might know that it cant be the same player having 2 spots
Case B: you find out you are team B (team with the 2nd pick) --> you might be able to tell who has which spot since only 1 opponent gets spots between the picks of you and your teammate
----------------
Level - Expert:
----------------3v3 with 4 picks per player (3v3 ladder EU)
Number of picks: 24
Pick distribution of the players: A1 B1 B2 A2 A3 B3 B3 A3 A2 B2 B1 A1 A1 B1 B2 A2 A3 B3 B3 A3 A2 B2 B1 A1
Figure out who of your team is X1, X2 and X3
Using the abstraction again you might be able to figure out if you are team A or team B
Case A: statement about picks of B3 is possible
Case B: statement about picks of A1 is possible
Both cases: statements about picks which do not belong to the same player
How to get the move order when seeing your opponent the 1st time (>T1, without intel before that):When your opponent moves between your moves you just need to count the number of moves you made before that:
Even - they had 1st move this turn
Uneven - you had 1st move this turn
(Same for deployments)
Do not use if you dont have any movement after the 1st seen movement of the opponent!
And do not count 0 movements (e.g. because of transfer or attack only)
Additional advices:Visualize your pick analysis - it's something else to see where your opponents are instead of just knowing their starts. Next to that you can continue your work for the next turns when you already have a colored map.
(Useful tip for the visualization: Open "Game"/"Game Settings"/"Full Settings"/"View Map" to get a blank map of your game - Screenshot the map and color it using Paint)
Repeat your analysis for the next turns - often you have much more intel after T1 from what you saw in this turn
Also mark how much your opponents deployed where
Example 1: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=20547354In this game we got our picks 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 11
What we know (+) / dont know (-) from it:
+ I have our 1st pick so I am player X1 and my teammate is X2
- If we are team A or team B
+ the opponents have 3, 6, 7, 8, 10
+ we see the 6th spot at CR, so we know all spots
- we cant be sure who has which pick
- we got no more intel from T1
+ we got full intel from T2 (the move order + who started where + we know all deployments of T1 and T2 and know their income)
Example 2:https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=21984868In this game we got our picks 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18, 19
+ We are team B since we missed our 1st pick
+ tornado is B1, Suschel B2 and I am B3, so I am moving as very 1st T1
+ 1, 4 and 5 belong to different opponents, so 5 needs a tap to get the FTB
+ T1 we saw full deployments of 2 opponents so we can assume Olja has pick 5 (Slovakia) (T2 we are sure)
+ We know denna has pick 1 (Island) without seeing him/her there in T1
Example 3: https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=20270180In this game we got our picks 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 17, 20, 21, 22
+ from the 20 in 10th position we know safe I had 1st pick, so everyone will move before me T1
+ pick 18 and 19 belong to the same player (Baer) who has 1st move T1
Edited 6/2/2020 08:24:58
