The first "civil war" wasn't really a civil war or rebellion, but more accurately described as a war between the states.
As for a new large-scale armed conflict in America in the next 10-30 years, I'd say the chances are greater than 50%. If every state were to respond to a gun grab the way the people of VA have this year, we may be able to stave it off. The problem is, the people who believe in gun rights are quickly becoming a minority due to immigration and demographic shift.
Most people assume such a conflict would be Democrats vs Republicans, but those are not the real battle lines. It will be a race war.
It's helpful to examine what happened in Virginia that led to the attempted gun grab and this potentially bloody conflict. Not long ago Virginia was a solid Red state, then became purple, and now it is permanently blue like California. All the state government bodies are now controlled by Democrats, and their first priority is grabbing your guns. How did this happen? One word: Demographics. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/us/virginia-elections-democrats-republicans.html
As you can see, the people who elected the Democrats grabbing the guns are mostly immigrants from foreign countries. Whites are the only demo with a majority that supports the 2nd amendment, or the 1st amendment, or even preserving the Washington and Jefferson monuments. Since the 1960s the white fertility rate has been below replacement, so nearly all the population growth since then has been from high fertility non white immigrants. Millions of them have flooded into northern Virginia in the last few years. Whites under the age of 18 are already a minority in America. Non-white legal immigrants vote 80% Democrat, and that gets worse over the generations, not better. No amount of pandering by the GOP will change that because non-whites vote based on identity and perceived group racial interests, and the GOP is the de facto party of native white people even as they refuse acknowledge that white people have interests and problems to address too.
Trump can continue to tweet about black and hispanic unemployment every day and it will never change the fact that Hispanics always vote 70-90% Democrat or that blacks, for example, vote 90-98% Democrat. Did 98% of blacks vote for Obama because of policy and ideology or was it skin color? Think about that for a second. Even dictators don't get numbers like that.
White immigrants like Irish and Italians easily assimilated in a couple generations, quickly identifying as just Americans and splitting their votes according to their beliefs. Blacks have been in America hundreds of years and still see their own separate racial identity as more salient and meaningful than the national identity. One could question whether a group that consistently votes based on their own racial interest for generations is able to EVER assimilate to an American identity or cast a vote for something that might benefit the country as a whole but not their racial group specifically.
We now see a deadly combination of demographic change, media censorship, and normalization of racial hatred against whites that forms a recipe for a South-Africa type scenario here in America. White Americans have largely been purged of all ethnic, religious, and now national identity. If we are to survive or avoid the looming conflict, these identities must be rebuilt and restored. The first priority is an immigration moratorium currently being advocated by congressional candidates Peted'Abrosca and Joshua Foxworthy.
This week on America First w/ Nick Fuentes there was an episode where the main story is what's going on Virginia. I recommend it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZ3V91rUu_Q