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Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 13:44:58

Jehovah 
Level 58
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Introduction- The Player vs The World event is the second event of its kind. One of the best players in Warlight, Odin will be playing a game against the world, with 'the world' voting on their favourite set of moves, which has been decided by a panel of 7 players. The most popular version will be executed. See (http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread?ThreadID=38816 for more details.
Panel- Dead Piggy, Fridge, Gnuffone, Marc2013 Pulsey, Szeweningen,Timinator


Last turn- Option 1 was most popular. Picks made are 1South America 2Scan 3Central America 4W Russia 5E China 6W China



Here's what we got


Our current intel is that Odin is in Central America and Scandinavia.

The Panel has decided on the following options.
{A}
1) Take East China : +5 Jiangxi | 5v2 Shanghai, 3v2 Beijing

{B}
2) Take East China : +5 Jiangxi | 8v2 Shanghai

{C}
3) Move towards Scandinavia and check China : +4 Ufa, +1 Jiangxi | 7v2 Moscow, 4v2 Hong Kong

{D}
4) Move into Central America, Scan and check China : +5 Colombia | 3v2 Moscow, 3v2 Hong Kong, 8v2 Panama

{E}
5) Take SA and check China : +5 Colombia| 3v2 Hong kong 4v2 Brazil, 4v2 Argentina

{F}
6) Move to Hong Kong : +5 Jiangxi | 8v2 Hong Kong (If you like this option, please comment)

Vote here: http://poll.pollcode.com/43982168

Odin is honor bound not to check these threads, so feel free to discuss strategies.

Edited 4/25/2014 05:29:56
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 13:46:42


Jefferspin 
Level 61
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Surrender, its over
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 13:49:22

Jehovah 
Level 58
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I agree, From a first glance, it doesnt look good, but it depends where odin's last pick is. if he's not in China then we have a safe 9 income and much better positions. If he is, then he will take scan, which we can counter to a degree, so doesn't look too bad.

Edited 4/24/2014 14:08:47
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 13:50:57

Jehovah 
Level 58
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here are quotes in the mail by gnuffone and piggy

I think he made the exact same picks as us and has the counter in china. To find out whether that's true we should move in china to border him there. Gives us some intel. If he is in china then neither side has a safe bonus. If he is in Africa then he has to dedicate the first 2 turns to taking it and cannot defend either of his other warlords. So if we make a 3v2 in Russia to pressure him if he tries to take scand then we can also try to clear him in CA. I dislike killing all these neutrals but the china/Russia warlords are quite useless.

3v2 to Moscow, 3v2 to hong kong, 8v2 to panama.

Next turn if he hasn't moved in panama and has got china then we have a guess, whether we hit in scand or CA. if the 3v2 hit, if not we are fucked.

If he has moved in panama and is in china then go all in to scand and make an attack in CA.

If he isn't in china then he has Africa probably and we hit in CA. He will make 3v2s in Africa and deploy 2 in CA for 6 defenders. We will have attacked with 8 getting 6 or 7 leftovers +5= 10 or 11 attackers for a good chance of clearing him. He can try to run but if he gets first move and misses a 3v2 we will get him next turn. He has other options here like put 5 down in CA to make it 10 or 11v9. That can go either way for us depending on luck.

We got first pick which here leaves us without essential intel, and no scand so we are losing right out of the gate. Interestingly making china our 6th pick was actually worse than making Africa our 6th pick but we didn't spot it.


Piggy

we have 3 bonus:
1) china, likely coutnered, a big risk.
2) russia, to easily to coutner from scan
3) SA, this was my strategy. he will never check it before turn 2 imho. But if he did, is lost: nother big risk.
4) waste in neutral and try to clear CA. (piggy strategy)
4 is the best as safe right now, i agree. though, if i were him, i would risk, bc we are in bad position and make SA.


Gnuffone

I mentioned 3)SA. If he checks turn 1 we are lost for sure, but even after that it is not good. if he has africa then he has nothing to defend in that area and so can keep attacking and moving stacks about for as long as he wants with the same income as us. Our only option would be to get china slowly while defending SA. Possible but we would be playing defensive for 5+ turns and would need to be accurate. can the world pull that off?

I would just go for an exciting uncomplex gamble and get this bad situation over with. Maybe we can do another player vs the world in a fortnight.

On second thought yeah lets do SA. Its not as hard as I was imagining to defend, and he probably has west china so will be doing scand first giving us 8v9. good idea gnuffles.


Piggy

Edited 4/24/2014 13:51:27
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 14:31:02


Mr. Gentleman*SEAHAWKSWONSUPERBOWLXLVIII*
Level 58
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LoL maybe we should have gone with D >.<. Hmmmm gunna have to really think on this tough choices to be had
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 15:50:30


Green 
Level 56
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Yeh, it's a hard one and every option is quite the risk. I think E would be the best option because I'd like to be defending SA vs defending any of our others, and by checking China it's giving us some really valuable Intel. Hopefully he's in Africa (I don't think he would be) because then we'd have some nice safe potential income to work with. I'm not going to vote yet though encase someone has a great idea.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 15:55:49


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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Haha, add surrender to the voting please.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 16:07:47


myhandisonfire 
Level 54
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F: Deploy all in China and move towards Hong Kong.

We need to know if his third spot is in China or not. If it is and we go for China, we lost. If it is and we go for Hong Kong with only 3 armies, we have a hard time. Getting China a turn delayed is better than risking immediate defeat by not checking for China or ignoring the bonus completely.

The move to check scandinavia is something we can do next turn for the card piece, in case we encounter his armies on one or more fronts.

Edited 4/24/2014 16:14:33
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 17:07:25


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Disagreed. If we fully deploy and see him in west china, all he has to do is stall 1-2 turns. It won't even matter if he gets eliminated since by eliminating him in west china he is delaying our possibility of taking east china by another turn.

We seem so sure that he is west china. I think East Africa is a more likely pick for him in this scenario due to the fact we got 1/4/5.

Taking SA is a very enticing option, because regardless of whether he is East Africa or West China, we're only really threatened by 1 front from CA due to the fact him moving into Panama would be suicide as a scout. Meaning we may still have priority in Panama even if he takes a bonus. I would pick D if we didn't move in Russia (it's pointless to move imo)

So I pick E.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 18:42:48


myhandisonfire 
Level 54
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If he is in East China, his expansion is right before our doorstep in scandinavia or CA. Not only can and will he not risk elimination himself in China,so we will do exactly what you expect of him to do. Delay him.

We then use the momentum to go for his bonus in CA while we border Scand. The situation is a problem only when he decides to go for scandinavia. Thats the worst case scenario and that would be a most likely loss for us.

Imo E is sure defeat.

Think of his position.
He has knowledge of at least 2 spots of us, Russia and SA. If he has East China, he most likely knows them all.
First think about what you would do in his shoes, before you think about what you would do in your own.

There is a chance he goes for scandinavia, testing by sending armies to finland. But he knows if he gets a full march towards finland, he probably lose the game. For him the safest idea is not to go for any bonus himself, but to prepare himself to counter us.
He would not need to worry about china, since he would only have to go there with 2 deployed armies next turn.
He would hardly need to worry about russia, since he only needs finland to make sure we dont take it in 2 turns.
So his safest move is to go towards SA probably via cuba and check for finland.
If he does that while we take SA, we might as well surrender.

Edited 4/24/2014 18:48:36
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 18:46:13

Widzisz • apex 
Level 60
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What is happening here? Why nobody told me about this? Why The World picked so bad? How much time there is for one move? Whose idea is option C? Why Jehovah is not retired? Where can I place my bet?
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 18:51:10


The National Socialist
Level 54
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You guys..... So much.....difficult..... Over analyzing....... AHHHHHHH!!!!!
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 19:10:38


[WM] Gnuffone 
Level 60
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pick are so bad bc this option was the most voted
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 19:24:38


Master Potato
Level 59
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All the options seem suicidal. I agree with myhand about going full in Hong Kong.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 19:33:32


The National Socialist
Level 54
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I like LolWut's suggestion
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 19:40:33


Master Potato
Level 59
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"LolWuts" suggestion is number E. I highly disagree with it.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 19:56:57

Hennns
Level 58
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I like F, you should add it to the poll
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 21:46:42

dwoogee
Level 59
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I like option D but without attacking Hong Kong. We can wait one turn with checking China. If he really is in Tibet he might show up.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/24/2014 22:40:48


Ⓖ. Ⓐrun 
Level 57
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I said pick D :P

I like F here too though.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 00:32:56


Norman 
Level 57
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Here is how I would play in Odins shoes (given the fact I either have West China or East Africa):

First my general plan after the outcome of the picks:
Option A: Odin has West China:
Take Scandinavia in two turns, second turn attack East China. First turn I would take Cuba. The opponents knows that I know that they have South America so nothing to hide. Taking Cuba prevents me from getting into trouble if the opponent hits South America strong first turn.

Option B: Odin has East Afria:
Take East Africa in two turns. Still nothing to hide in Central America so take Cuba first turn.


Here is how your strategies will play out against me:
Strategy 'F' and in West China --> Try to dodge in China and still take Scandinavia. If dodging not possible then for the next two turns I have a bonus and you don't. This allows me to do bad stuff.

Strategy 'A' + 'B' and me in West China --> You should lose.
Strategy 'A' + 'B' and me not in West China --> Game open.
Strategy 'C' and me in West China --> Game open
Strategy 'C' and me not in West China --> You should lose.
Strategy 'D' and me in East Africa --> Since I can take East Africa without risking elimination from Central America I have the advantage.
Strategy 'D' and me in West China --> Since I have a bonus and you don't you either have to get lucky with eliminating me from one spot or you lost. Since I will eliminate you from one of the other spots though you should lose anyways.

Edit:
What I don't understand is why not to stick with (what I suppose is) the initial strategy by picks. Pick 5 was probably to get a safe backup if the other picks get messed up. Now suddenly the world realises that China isn't safe at all.

Edited 4/25/2014 09:26:13
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 05:29:06

Jehovah 
Level 58
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I can't make a new poll, since so many people has voted already, and especially since myhand isnt part of the panel.

But i'll add it to the list of options. If you support F, please comment below. I will treat it as part of the poll anyway.

So far, we have 3 votes. Myhand, Hennns and Arun.

If you ask me, I think Odin is in China. Its been more than a day and he hasn't taken his turn, although i've talked to him during that period of time. If he's in Africa it shouldn't be a very hard turn for him. ;P

Edited 4/25/2014 06:10:40
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 07:00:13


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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Option F is weak. If he has china then we clear him there and he gets a bonus. IT takes us another 2 turns to get east china (that's turn FOUR before we get our first bonus) and we will never ever complete west china. If he has Africa then he gets to take scand almost for free. turn 3 he will get 9 income to our 5 and will use it to complete scand, and it will take us until turn 5 to break it (and that's with lots of luck) and bring us back to even income (but him with bigger stacks for sure). I cant conceive of a way that this option will lead to a win. If one of you can spell out a hypothetical scenario where it does id be grateful.

Edited 4/25/2014 07:01:40
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 09:24:59


Norman 
Level 57
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I think the votes for option A and B should be counted together since they both agree that taking East China is worth the risk. Option A let's us take East China a little bit safer and option B is better when Odin (for some reason) attacks East China first turn.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 09:33:16


myhandisonfire 
Level 54
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It was my first instinct to play like this. It was primarily meant against the favored move of taking SA, instead of being the superior cause of action. In regards of Normans post I am aware and already stated that him taking Scand will most likely lead to a swift defeat.

My plan was never going for elimination of him in East China in case of encountering, but just using the mere threat as a momentum for the next moves in russia or CA. I was never fully satisfied with it and I know that it can fail gloriously.

I just dont want us to take SA as first bonus and would rather have us take Russia instead.

On second thought going with 4 to Vorkuta and 4 to moscow while checking for Hong Kong could be a better move, with hopes of finishing Russia next turn.

Edited 4/25/2014 09:37:01
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 11:10:59


TheWarlightMaster 
Level 59
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you guys are all crazy, we need strategy A!

I think his 3rd pick is in East Africa

If you attack Hong Kong 8v2, and hes not in West china, you are BONED. If you are TRULY afraid of him being in West China, i would go with strategy B

Edited 4/25/2014 11:12:59
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/25/2014 11:22:12


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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Sorry, I didn't mean to shout you down, I didn't realise you were thinking out loud. I think he would see that there was no threat of him being eliminated in china (it would lead to a loss) and not deploy or move, so there wouldn't be any momentum gained. He might fall for it though?

Doing Russia first is very similar to doing SA first with the main difference being that one can defend SA more easily because there is no territory for him to take with a double border on SA. If we do Russia and he takes finland defending is going to be outrageously difficult.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/26/2014 02:45:52

Jehovah 
Level 58
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i'll tally results tommorow.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/26/2014 16:32:43


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's East Africa too, but I'm not willing to take a bonus that could potentially have a triple border against my enemy with 8 vs 9 income. If my guess is wrong, and he's west china.. it's game if I try to take east china. If I take South America, there's minimal risk involve. Sure he scouts Cuba, but he will lack the income to bust South America and expand a bonus. He'll have to choose which is more important: Securing income, or busting mine. It's too risky to bust me, so he'll secure his income. If I scout West China and he's there, then no harm no foul. Sure he'll have an army advantage there, but I did not waste my income trying to take East China and will be able to equalize that front. Being eliminated from there may sound bad if it happens, but in that scenario I will probably have advantage in Cuba or Scand, much quicker bonuses to expand if I eliminate him. So, I don't really understand the hate on taking South America.
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/26/2014 16:33:40


szeweningen 
Level 60
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My prediction, he is in china and will move full in scan. I'm really hoping option D won't get voted.

Edited 4/26/2014 16:36:01
Odin vs The World | TURN 1 VOTE MOVES!: 4/26/2014 22:38:00


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Following your prediction, we should be fine expanding SA.
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