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Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 09:51:30

Master Potato
Level 59
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So bannana shake and I decided to play some gui roma.. we were winning untill grey began getting first order.. over and over again

turn 7-14 he gets first order.. 7 times in the row, is this like a new record or something??

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6034999
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 09:54:40

Bananashake
Level 60
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YOU NEED LOTS OF SKILL TO GET FIRST ORDER THAT MANY TIMES!!
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 12:13:44

Jefferspin
Level 61
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That's one way to make an excuse for losing.
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 12:16:32

Jehovah
Level 58
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http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5563836

9. should have won the game otherwise.
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 12:30:26

Master Potato
Level 59
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Good template brian imma use it
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 19:53:17

almosttricky
Level 61
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The chance of 7 firsts in a row is 0.5^7=0.78% or once in 128 games
The chance of 9 firsts 0.5^9=0.195% or once in 513 games
Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 23:25:39

Jehovah
Level 58
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Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less

really? over the course of a few million games, shouldnt experimental probability equal theortetical probability? I'm sure it can happen in less obvious situations like you getting 9 first turns in a row against someone in the fog.

The chance of 7 firsts in a row is 0.5^7=0.78% or once in 128 games
The chance of 9 firsts 0.5^9=0.195% or once in 513 games

This is incorrect also. The probabilities are right but you're assuming that all games end in 9 turns, so it actually happens in fewer games than you think.

Edited 4/13/2014 23:30:59
Craziest luck ever?: 4/13/2014 23:38:57

Dutch Desire
Level 59
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Of course the chance of it happening when it actually matters is quite a bit less

The chance of it happening when it actually matters is exley exactly the same...

over the course of a few million games, shouldnt experimental probability equal theortetical probability?

No.
This is incorrect also. The probabilities are right but you're assuming that all games end in 9 turns, so it actually happens in fewer games than you think.

This calculation is also correct assuming chance of 7/9 firsts or more.

Edited 4/13/2014 23:47:11
Craziest luck ever?: 4/14/2014 01:06:44

{rp} Wishing Gold
Level 50
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In that first game the first order was switching between the Grey player and Bananashake each time. So, arguably, Banana got equally lucky with the order. The grey was not getting first order every time, just earlier than you. Still, frustrating -.-
Craziest luck ever?: 4/14/2014 08:02:35

ā§IRIÜSā
Level 57
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in conclusion, you should do some banana shakes to bring you luck ;D
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