Is there some other math involved here that makes it more likely to fail the last territory in a bonus?

The numbers just don't add up for me, regardless of luck %. I've been keeping track of it with 16% luck games as well as 75% luck games.

5 v 2, 4 v 2, 3 v 1 seem to fail much more often when the territory in question is the last territory in a bonus.

I am really to the point of need to send 6 v 2 to make sure I get the bonus early in the game. I can't believe how many times i've witnessed 5 v 2 fail in this scenario.

So, I just like to share my observation and wonder if anyone else has the same observation, or better yet is there some known/unknown thing going on here that makes the regular predictability fly out the window?

Confirmation bias. There is absolutely nothing different to taking the last territory. You just notice the failures more often due to their significance to your plans.

The real question is why are you wasting your time on 75% luck games?

Edited 3/11/2014 02:55:04

At 16% luck that is not my experience. You are playing with 75% luck I presume and that should be some sort of bias therefore. We might call it the Dr.Evil-Bias after this first-ever mention. Or more explicitly the DONTDARENOTTAKETHAT****LAND-Bias.

i notice that too thats why a couple hundred games ago i started trying to get the last 2 territorys in a bonus on the same turn

It's just Murphy's law.

No, these people are wrong. What happened was the server lashed out. Not many people know this, but many years ago, the WarLight server became sentient. It merely allows games to be played wit it as a smokescreen. More than likely, you made some disparaging remark about the game, or realized that the game itself was alive, and this was just the server taking revenge.

Edited 3/11/2014 05:37:20

Well, one of these theories is right anyway

I just did a game on the grid map with 75% luck where I did 24 1v1 attacks that did not complete a bonus and 24 attacks that did. The chance to take the territory was 18%, meaning that I should have taken 4,32 territories from each side.
I took 1 from the side that did not complete the bonus, and 4 from the side that did.

I have bad luck in the beggining, in the middle and in the end. Even with no luck. So I can't say your theory is correct :/