For people who can check luck stats, what's the lowest cumulative luck you've ever had in a game? I'm curious. I just played my unluckiest game ever...I failed more "6 on 2"s than many of my other games combined. The lowest cumulative luck I hit that game was -26.20.
Note: for standard luck (75% luck percentage) games
Completely agree with Perrin, although it's technically not completely true and it's difficult to compare either way.
tl;dr statistics part:
Depending on the assumptions, both are about as (un)likely.
Basically under the expected luck=0 assumption (which is not always true), the standard deviation of the luck is proportional to the square root of the numbers of armies involved (following an approximately normal distribution).
If you assume the number of armies involved is rather constant (which is an unlikely assumption), -25 on 10 turns is slightly more unlikely than -65 on 100. (8/constant1 versus 6.5/constant2 standard deviations away from the mean, with the constants equal depending on the armies per turn and the standard deviation of the luck for one army.)
If you assume the numbers involved rise, -25 on 10 is of course much more unlikely as constant2 will be much bigger than constant1.
If you take into account that there are more neutrals in the beginning and consequently your expected luck may be negative in the beginning (if you only do 5v2 attacks for example), -65 on 100 may be more unlikely. The probability of having -25 luck or less after 10 turns may be very high as the expected luck may be as low as -25 (if you have many neutrals which you all attack with 5's or higher), while still getting to -65 after 100 turns may be more difficult (as you still need to lose 40 more luck, now with an expected luck of 0.)
You are practically guaranteed to be negative luck if you play it smart. Always attacking 4 on 2 and 8 on 4 gives you little room for positive luck. You can only really boost your luck by making 3 on 2 and 6 on 4 attacks.
Yes I get it. I studied that game turn by turn, order by order. The overall luck doesn't say the truth about how fair it was. I got possitive luck from 5 vs 2 becuse I lost 1 instead of 2. But the only thing that matters is if I got my bonus as planned or not. Little difference is made whether there will be 3, 4 or 5 standing after that, mainly because I can plan and take risks or not depending on what I got left. The main thing is that when you decide not to take a risk, one attack with 5 on the 2 neutrals that fails is much much worse than any 4 vs 2.
If anyone comes across a 5 vs 1 fail, I would like him to post me the link to that game, regardless if it was that crucial as my turn 8 one on this game.