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Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/3/2017 22:51:59

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
Hello all, and welcome to the Division Q1 (Qualifier) official thread for clan league 9!

CL Doucument: https://goo.gl/xT2dzg

In case you have forgotten, the clans participating in this division are:

Acme Co. (ACME):                   https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=206
Fifth Column Confederation (FCC):  https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=17
Footballguys (FBG):                https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=12
Hydra (HYDRA):                     https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=237
The Poon Squad:                    https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=162
{Olympus} (Olympus):               https://www.warlight.net/Clans/?ID=167

Cl9 Threads: (thanks, Onoma94!)


Tournament Start Dates:

2/3 - 3v3  Deadman's Rome
2/4 - 2v2  Guiroma
2/5 - 1v1  Guiroma
2/6 - 1v1  ME WR
2/7 - 1v1  Volcano Island

Tournament Winners:

Deadman's Rome:       TBD
2v2 Guiroma:          TBD  
1v1 Guiroma:          FCC  (Pardon99)
1v1 Old Strat ME:     ACME (ACL Tears)
1v1 Volcano Island:   FCC  (Pardon99)

Quick Ranking Update (By points obtained) (last update: 3/17/17 @2321z ):

1. HYDRA           (51)
1. FCC             (51)
3. ACME            (46)
4. The Poon Squad  (32)
5. FBG             (23)
6. Olympus         (13)

Quick Ranking Update (By max points) (last update: 3/17/17 @2321z ):

1. FCC             (75)
2. HYDRA           (72)
3. ACME            (68)
5. The Poon Squad  (46)
4. FBG             (38)
6. Olympus         (22)


  • I plan on doing quick updates as frequently as feasible. This could be once every two to three days.
  • Full Comprehensive Updates will come from me weekly between 20z Friday and 8z Saturday, depending on my situation.
  • Updates will be provided for tournament wins

I wish all of you the best of luck!

-[FCC] Aura Guardian

May the Aura Forever Guide You.
Be blessed that the fates have brought us together.
Be honored that the aura flows strongly within us all.
Let us becomes allies on the battlefield that entwines, creates, and breaks; friends, enemies, and lovers; together.

Edited 3/22/2017 00:52:37
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/4/2017 00:57:20

Level 62
1. Hydra - Should be in B , Favorites to promote and are my favorites to promote to B! Great Depth , Great Players! Now has to be the time.

2. FCC - Surprisingly , One of the most improved in the Division and probably whole of CL! They seem to have more power then ACME. My favourite to get 2nd. Important FCC keep their assets in check and nobody disappear or boots.

3 ACME - ACL Tears leading the team here , Let's see how the others do this will tell if ACME can over take FCC or not.

4. PoonCrew - Have decent players can cause upsets. Bayern means negative points for FCC.

5. FBG - Don't know much about them , Could easily take over PoonCrew

6. Olympus - Didn't do well last CL , Capable of better I think so let's see how they do.
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/4/2017 01:08:34

Level 47

is my expectation. Top 3 could shift a bit, I think they all finish within 10 points of each other so any games those 3 lose to the bottom 3 will be impactful.
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/4/2017 01:18:23

Great Pomeranian Empire
Level 55
Kalin will be MVP of this otherwise weak group. POON ON!

Edited 2/4/2017 01:18:29
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/4/2017 04:00:45

Level 57
Thanks for looking after this Aura Guardian.
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/4/2017 06:03:17

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
The first games have kicked off. I wish everyone and their clans the best of luck!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/4/2017 14:34:07

Level 59
Best of luck to the rest of the clans! And go FCC!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/5/2017 06:55:45

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
2v2 Guiroma Started today! Godspeed ahead to all!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/6/2017 14:20:32

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
1v1 Guiroma started. Things start getting interesting Frome here on out! Good luck all!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/7/2017 05:39:06

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
1v1 Old Strat ME has now commenced. Let the flames fly!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/7/2017 06:04:14

Great Expanse 
Level 60
Not much has happened yet but we have the first interesting game imo:

1v1 ME WR:
Omniscient (FCC) vs. ACL Tears (ACME): https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12862248
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/7/2017 08:32:21

Level 61
Just going to say something... :

„Tournament Start Dates:

2/3 - 3v3 Deadman's Rome
2/4 - 2v2 Guiroma
2/5 - 1v1 Guiroma
2/6 - 1v1 TBD
2/7 - 1v1 TBD

Don't you think you must update these templates, Aura?

And a question: How does all of this work?

Edited 2/7/2017 08:34:05
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/7/2017 14:31:15

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
Thanks for the reminder, Bayern! I completely forgot. I have been dealing with a family emergency, so I have been a bit forgetful in non-central areas of my life as of late.
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/7/2017 15:34:12

Level 61

From the upper post:
And a question: How does all of this work?

Edited 2/7/2017 15:34:28
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/7/2017 16:16:03

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
You should be able to find the answer to your question in the links provided. In particular, the first link should answer your question.

Edited 2/7/2017 16:17:59
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/8/2017 00:03:52

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
Quick Update:

Its the fourth day in, and not too many eventful things have happened, especially with two players currently on vacation in the league, which will slow the progress of it down the stretch. However, we do have our first completed game, in 1v1 guiroma. Pardon99 is the one who struck first blood, bouyed by a very lucky successful first attack (his attack of 9 took a 6!). Dragons could not do much because his three other picks were clustered in the south, and pardon was able to take swift victory and 3 points in the game.


Well, that's about it for the quick update! A more comprehensive update will be incoming Friday!

Edited 2/8/2017 00:04:24
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/8/2017 06:26:59

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
The last set of tournaments have been created. Volcano island is up. It's full throttle from here!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/8/2017 07:13:59

Level 64
Few of the games have ended due to players not joining the game within the allotted 3 days.. Please make sure that your clan mates understand that they have to join these games(or it counts as a loss). The CLOT respects vacations and these players can join after they return.

Edited 2/8/2017 07:15:48
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/8/2017 22:47:25

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
Quick update:

As MoD mentioned, there have been several non-joins which have been counted as losses since yesterday. In particular, Olympus's 2v2 team has lost both of their first games, and one of their 3v3s, in this way. As a result, they are behind early in max points, and must now dig themselves out of a hole that they created for themselves if they wish to compete.

Edited 2/8/2017 22:47:31
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/10/2017 01:18:29

Level 63
Hi aura! Thx for making this!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/11/2017 01:21:13

Μῶμος (Momus) 
Level 58
Olympus would like to make the following substitutions:

Stage 1:
1v1 Volcano Island: Harpocrates in for Apllo
2v2 Guiroma: Acheron in for Dionýsios
3v3 Deadman's Rome: Ἡρακλῆς (Hercules) in for Dionýsios

Stage 2:
1v1 Phobia: Harpocrates in for Apllo
2v2 China: Hera (EW) in for Apllo
3v3 Phobia: Ἡρακλῆς (Hercules) in for Dionýsios
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/11/2017 02:53:45

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
The substitutions will be added in soon.

Edited 2/11/2017 03:37:39
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/11/2017 03:25:16

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
Cl9 Q1 Comprehensive Update I

Completed Games:
Detonates Winner

3v3 Deadman's Rome:
Olympus vs Poon Squad      (non-join win)

2v2 Guiroma:
HYDRA vs Olympus           (non-join win)
FCC vs Olympus             (non-join win)

1v1 Guiroma:
HYDRA vs FCC                https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12877661
HYDRA vs Olympus            https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12856008
Poon Squad vs FBG           https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12856013
FCC vs ACME (boot)          https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12856015 
FCC vs FBG                  https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12856010

1v1 Old Strat ME:
HYDRA vs FBG                https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12862251

1v1 Volcano Island
Poon Squad vs FCC           https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12869058

Data Summary:


Since this is the first major update, no progression can be provided.


After the first week, as many predicted, FCC and HYDRA occupy the first two places early in the competition. The FCC currently leads in the running with 16 total points, followed by HYDRA, who is not far behind with ten points. Poon Squad and FBG have also gained 5 and three points respectively, with Dragons beating Andresso in a 1v1 and Poon Squad racking up a non-join win. ACME is largely unchanged, however, loses three points due to a boot, courtesy of biggreen15, on 1v1 guiroma. Olympus is stuck in the mud due to several non-shows in their tournaments, highlighting the possibility that their roster may have been haphazardly been put together.

Clan by Clan:

A quiet week by ACME. Not much to say here. However, a boot win for FCC courtesy of bigreen15 may point to an unstable future for this clan,and may sink them.

FCC has opened the first week of competition strong, racking up 16 total points, tied only by 7th Heaven in Q2 for that total amount of points. In addition, FCC has yet to drop a game, which means that they are the only clan in Q1 who still has 90 max points. A critical matchup vs HYDRA in Guiroma 1v1 highlighted the week, allowing them to gain cruicial points vs a significant rival. I shoulden't get too comfortable with my own clan's progress quite yet, however, as 7 of these points came from boots/non-joins.

FBG has been only slightly more active than ACME, having won one game and having been dealt two loses in 1v1 play, one from FCC and one from HYDRA. They did win against poon squad, however, and still retain 84 max points. We will have to see where this clan goes, and where the ultimately finish.

Hydra is also pretty healthy at the moment, sitting with 87 max points and 10 total points. They are definitely keeping up the pace against FCC. They may have dropped a game vs FCC, but they certainly could easily overtake the lead with a victory on another template against my clan at any time.

The Poon Squad
Poon Squad sits in a similar situation to FBG currently. With 84 max points, they are well within battling distance. The only major difference is their non-join win garnered them 5 points, whereas FBG fought to get their 3 points on 1v1 guiroma. Once again, its very uncertain to prognosticate where exactly this clan is.

Poor Olympus. Their non-join losses have put them into the stinker hole early here. Whether they can recover from these issues is yet to be seen. They changed out some players to try and repair these problems, however, it does not fix the fact that they need to work their way out of a hole, with no won game and only 74 max points (lowest of any qualifier clan).

Game of the Week: https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12877661

There were not many interesting games to pick from this week, so that means the game that may have the most repercussions down the road will get the spotlight. This game features the FCC victory over HYDRA in 1v1 Guiroma. A triple pick of Southern Italy allows Green Turtle to gain a quick income advantage early, however the players do have matched income when they meet. Jyu simply has better long term options than Green Turtle, which ultimately dooms him in this game.

Edited 2/11/2017 06:29:25
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/11/2017 08:24:45

Level 61
https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=12862252 - this game has been created
02/07 3:57 CET now it is
02/11 9:24 CET

why isn't it a win already?
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/11/2017 09:59:19

Level 63
Because Nauz is currently on vacation. Vacations are honored from the CLOT.
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/11/2017 12:38:42

Level 61
Oh.. didn't notice he's on vacation. Thanks :)
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/13/2017 00:44:09

Math Wolf 
Level 63
Predictions based on 85 respondents:
              1    2    3    4    5    6 mean   sd        
Hydra      74.1 17.6  5.9  1.2  0.0  1.2 1.39 0.82
FCC        12.9 41.2 23.5 12.9  5.9  3.5 2.68 1.24
ACME        5.9 22.4 44.7 12.9 11.8  2.4 3.09 1.13
Poon Squad  4.7  8.2  7.1 32.9 20.0 27.1 4.36 1.41
Olympus     1.2  5.9 12.9 29.4 24.7 25.9 4.48 1.24
FBG         2.4  5.9  5.9 10.6 36.5 38.8 4.89 1.28

Hydra runs away with the win according to the respondents and even if they don't, getting to the C group should be obvious with over 90% (78 out of 85) putting them first and second. No other clan has a higher probability to end up in group C over all qualifiers. Additionally, their standard deviation of 0.82 is the lowest among all clans over all divisions.

FCC gets second relatively comfortable it seems, yet the difference for 2nd between FCC and ACME was not significant at the 5% significance level, so there is no evidence that the general Warlight public sees them as more skilled than ACME. According to our panel, getting to the C group is a coin-flip, with 54.1% predicting them there although mostly behind Hydra.

ACME finished just behind FCC in the predictions, with close to half of the votes third place and the remainder equally divided between better (getting to C) and worst. Their predictions are slightly more condensed than those of FCC, giving them a lower ceiling, but also higher floor, including only 2 last place votes to FCC's 3.

The race for 4th place was too close to call really. The difference for 4th to 5th and 5th to 6th was not significant with 4th to 6th (Poon Squad vs. FBG) borderline (p-value 4.8%). So while Poon Squad is ranked 4th, it's worth noting that almost half of the predictions put them lower than that. With only 20% top 3 predictions, getting to C seems like a reach to most of our panel. Nevertheless, they have only 1 first place vote less than third ranked ACME, so there is hope, I assume?

Even before Clan League started, getting to C was going to be a reach for Olympus. I'm not going to comment on what happened since as our respondents didn't know this either. Just like Poon Squad, the votes were about split between 4th, 5th and 6th with 20% predicting 3rd or higher. They do have the lowest first place and qualifying for C votes of all clans though, so the outlook was bleak to begin with. The model didn't give them significantly lower chances than Poon Squad at the time though.

FBG was only barely significantly worse ranked than Poon Squad, including the disclaimer in the main methodology. So it suffices to say that about everything going for Poon and Olympus, should also be going for the soccer guys (you know, that sport where you actually use your feet to touch the ball all the time unlike that rugby for soft guys). Compared to the previous two clans, the votes are more concentrated at 5 and 6 for FBG though, meaning than only a quarter of the respondents see them finishing 4th or higher with 7 respondents believing qualifying for C is possible.

Please see https://www.warlight.net/Forum/243545-cl-predictions-spreadsheet?Offset=79 for full methodology and other divisions.
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/13/2017 05:05:31

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
A good read, math wolf! I appreciate it!
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/13/2017 16:03:38

Level 57
Math wolf, you are a wonderful person. Very witty and informative, thank you.

Edited 2/13/2017 16:03:56
Clan League 9: Division Q1 Official Thread: 2/14/2017 20:44:32

Aura Guardian 
Level 62
The FCC would like to make some substitutions

1v1 ME WR: From Omniscient --> sloppyfatginger
3v3 Deadman's Rome From Omniscient --> Super Smoove.

In round II

2v2 China From Super Smoove --> Des {TJC}

Edited 2/15/2017 00:26:02
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