I want to know the probability distribution for leftovers with luck modifier, especially 16%.

In other words, I want to know if I successfully capture a territory of say 5 what the probability distribution is of me losing 3 armies/ 4 armies etc.

I want to be able to anticipate the possible range of leftovers and what's most likely.

The wiki page doesn't give a legible answer to this question, although it tells me that the luck modifier is done via binomial distribution, but I don't know the Math to calculate the above.

Any Math whizzes here who know how to do this? Can you work me through one example so I can see how you do it?

I don't know how to find the exact answer. But you could always make an experiment. I don't think it would be to difficult to collect the data. You probably could accomplish collecting a reasonable sample size pretty quickly.

Yes, perhaps if you can't work out the theory from the ground up with a systematic standpoint of view, you could always instead start from outside observation and then work your way inwards and base your understanding off of noticeable patterns and trends that seem to repeat over a set interval of time.

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