https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=11668505

I don't think I should have won this game after picks. I think in my opponents shoes I'd have finished CR and hit West China so that I had a 14-12 income lead, and then slowly pressed my advantage to win the game. I did win, but it was outplaying him and taking risks, not due to superior picks.

What would other people have picked, and why? The whole board seemed rather bad to me.

My first three picks offered mediocre board coverage, but it had the best coverage of the turn two twelve income options on the board so I went with it.

The other options on the board that resulted in twelve income after turn two were a Russia triple pick (Scandinavia, West Russia, Central Russia, and Indonesia+South East Asia alongside any of the following: Western Russia, Central Russia, East China.

Well, I'm not the best picker ever, and it depends on who I'm playing against, but against an excellent player probably something like this:

1) Antarctica
2) East China
3) Scandinavian Peninsula
4) East US
5) West Russia
6) Central America

To me, Antarctica is a pretty clear #1 since it's super safe and also has great expansion/countering opportunities into Africa. East US altso catches my eye as also ridiculously safe, but I'd be afraid of the counter in Central America. (I was tempted to put East US #3 and Central America #4 to lay a trap for my opponent but if I missed my #1 or #2, especially with Antarctica such an obvious pick IMO, that could backfire horribly.)

Other than that, the next best spots are the Scandinavia area and the East China area. I like East China as #2 since it can control the SEA/Indonesia area or even East Russia if it's picked, though I'm wary of West China, so this probably isn't a place to expand early. I also want a pick in the Scandinavia area. Either Scandinavia or West Russia works, really, but I'm getting greedy and hoping for 2-turn 11 income (I can take Finland turn 1 to see if it's safe).

I put West Russia as my #5 since I'm probably more likely to lose Scandinavia than East China. West China would also be a valid #5, to counter East China instead of Scandinavia. Central America is safe to place as #6 since getting #6 means your opponent has your #4 and #5, so if I get Central America I can know my opponent is in East US and surprise him there, with no risk of accidentally ending up with both East US and Central America.

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As for your picks, you did cover the two most important areas on this map, the Scandinavia area and East China. I don't like putting my early picks close to each other though - now you only have 2 locations even though you could've had 3 if they were all separate. I guess having West Russia and Scandinavia can help you take it with fewer placements (although not fewer turns - it's 2 turns either way!).

However, with this strategy I'd switch West Russia and Scandinavia. It's generally better to pick the outside of a combo first - I'd rather have West Russia by itself here than Scandinavia since it's closer to the border between the bonuses.

And if you lose Antarctica, there's pretty much nothing you can do about it, so that could be a lot of safe income for your opponent. Your #5 and #6 are decent enough, I suppose - your #6 counters your #5, which is nice, and it prevents you from having no presence in eastern Asia unless you get 1-2-4. You're in trouble though if you get your #5 but lose your #3. Personally, I see no reason not to go for East US if you already know your opponent's not there.

"I don't like putting my early picks close to each other though"

I agree with that, it was a large part of why I second guessed the picks I made. East US was safe, but had no expansion. Antarctica had expansion, but not great expansion with South America and Australia both wastelanded. It was however safe expansion since virtually no one would start in Africa with those warlords.

" I guess having West Russia and Scandinavia can help you take it with fewer placements (although not fewer turns - it's 2 turns either way!)."

It doesn't let you take Scandinavia or West Russia faster, no, but it allows you to take Scandinavia and East China simultaneously finishing both turn 2 rather than one or the other. I'm really fond of turn two setups that allow twelve income, but I'd have preferred it if say, it was West Russia, Scandinavia, and South America, something with better board coverage, but most of the five-territory bonuses on this specific board were either wastelanded or contained bad warlords (ie. Africa wasn't wastelanded, but it was still garbage).

"有史以来最伟大的, picks aren't the only thing that's important in a game. "

I'm well aware. If they were I'd have surely lost that game. As is I won by playing better, and taking a risk he didn't anticipate. I don't think he expected me to go for West China with him all around it, but it was the only way for me to win the game so there was no reason not to do it.

The real solution though isn't learning to steal games you've lost after picks, it's to get better at picking so you don't need to take such risks to have a chance at winning.

Edited 7/27/2016 23:25:28

I only looked for about 30 secs, but my first thought was the exact same 3 you had. Nice 2 turn 12, lots of expansion. Imo, you won on picks, your picks naturally expand onto double borders on his income, he gets no europe expansion, his only other pick is surrounded by wastelands and offers 0 expansion also.

Only one comment, turn 3, you expanded like crazy into west china without checking it was safe. I would have taken the double border on CR turn 3, because A) it's a very likely place for them to be, and B) CR has a double border on west china, which would screw you a bit if he had completed it. So I'd have checked west china was safe before taking 3 territories in it.

A compromise with what awesomeusername was saying about picks in different places, and expansion is to have a 2 turn 11, with 2 picks in 3 bonus's, then you can usually take a 4 or 5 bonus turn 3 to get a 3 turn 15 or 16, without comboing any picks.

hmm, quick analysis without reading other peoples comments:
1) East US
2) Antartica
3) Scandinavia
4) East Russia
5) Central Russia
6) East China

my logic is to make sure i have atleast 1 safe pick (either east us or if i lose that, have both +3's to get +6 income in 2 turns) and then have position in Asia where there is a lot of expansion and it's likely to become a battlefield

might not be the optimum picks though, would have to think a bit more about this layout, possible opponent picks and how i would have to play to counter them.

I guess I could win without West China, I just felt I was at a disadvantage off picks due to likelihood of 12 vs. 14, but I guess honestly 12 vs. 10 was the more likely scenario had I charged Central Russia after hitting 12. I likely couldn't finish WR and break CR, but could probably break CR.

His expansion also strikes me as....bad.

I don't know why he didn't move in CR turn 2, so he could finish it turn 3 for turn 3 14. Yeah, you can argue WR makes CR unsafe, but as he realized, so was ER due to EC, and CR at least stalemates WR, ER does no such thing to EC, EC can hit Japan or Inner Mongolia to cripple ER.

your opponent played like a donkey though


likely i'd go with
Ant
Scand
EC
WR
WC
ER/SEA


US lacks too much expansion :(