if you go aggresive in North, i will run in turn 2 while finishing my +5 AA. so it's 50% :P
if you eliminante me you won, if i run i will be 10v8 income and i will win probably

I wish we had more of these threads and less of the dumb OT crap on here.

I'm not sure about the exact 50% chance of you getting 1st move, getting a 3vs2 and take the aus bonus, but let's call it that anyway ;)

Me too Chris, I think more people should put interesting picks like this on the forum for people to discuss, it's always fun to talk about what everyone would do - I think most players just can't be bothered.