SNP will get about sixty seats

Lol. They're only standing candidates in 59 constituencies.

Sinn Fein will win between three and six seats.

Well, they might win in a few constituencies but they'll end with 0 seats because they refuse to take their seats.

Edited 5/3/2015 16:56:04

C'mon. Mark Reckless, Douglas Carswell and Nigel Farage are safe seats. We can bet on David Coburn, Suzanne Evans and Nutall getting their seats. I am betting on a minimum of four and a maximum of eleven seats for UKIP.

There not polling anywhere near enough in the constituencies for that number of seats. Check out Lord Ascrofts polling. Carswell might have a better chance than Reckless though as he is more popular an MP in his constituency.

David Coburn, Suzanne Evans and Nutall ... Not happening.

I'll take your bet though - I say 1 or 2 anything over that and you win.

Bring on the Conservative - Lib Dem - UKIP coalition!

English government
(Noun)
Definition
1. Parliamentary Republic, democratic republic.
2. People with top hats and pipes and fancy suits
3. What American government should be like.

Bring on the Conservative - Lib Dem - UKIP coalition!

Hmm, UKIP unlikely, they'll win 3 seats max. However, The SNP are unlikely to be part of any deal after the election, since both Labour and the Tories keep saying they'll refuse to do a deal with the SNP. the Lib Dems will work with either, but are unlikely to win enough seats to make up the last few seats needed for a majority. It's the Northern Irish parties that might have to help form a government, and for all the anti-SNP media hype, the DUP and Sien Fien are not both worrying propositions as a 3rd party in a post-election deal. Sien Fien don't take their seats, so there's no need to bother with them, but the DUP are not a nice bunch of people, but would do better with some voters than the SNP.

Also, Genghis, since when did a democracy have to be a republic?

Edited 5/4/2015 10:57:14

Do you think that Great Britain will finally leave the European Union?

I mean in France I watched the news people said UK is likely to leave EU after those elections.

Do you think that Great Britain will finally leave the European Union?

Unlikely in the near future. First, that would require a referendum and a referendum would require the support of the majority in the House of Commons. I can't see that happening after this election.

Edited 5/4/2015 14:59:40

Speaking as possibly the only Northern Irish person on Warlight, and considering that Norn Iron is completely ignored in the whole election debate, I'll give a quick run-down of our parties and their chances

8-10 Seats; The DUP; think UKIP except without a charismatic leader or an attempt not to sound racist. (similar to the BNP)
5-6; Sinn Fein; claim to be radical left but will say/do anything for a vote, and don't take their seats anyway.
2-3; SDLP; Labour economically, but very conservative socially.
1-3; UUP; the old-fashioned Tory right
0-1; Alliance, basically the Lib Dem's, and the only relevant, non-sectarian party in the North.
(My party, but I'd be Labour in England)

I'd rather see UKIP in coalition with the Tory's, they're much less bad than the DUP.

UKIP will get 2-3, Reckless is in a marginal seat, don't read too much into by-election results they have low turnouts and usually go against the gov.

Based purely on vote%, UKIP should do better than that and Labour should get at least 20 seats in Scotland, but FPTP is stacked heavily against them.

PRSTV is a much better idea

Labour should get at least 20 seats in Scotland

With Gordon Brown no longer leader of the Labour party, many many people have stopped voting for Labour in Scotland. The popular choice in Scotland now is SNP, and they will get almost all of Scotland's seats.

The SNP will get 50+, I meant that Labour would get over 20 seats if the result was even vaguely proportional, which of course it isn't

To be honest even though I do not vote and I am politically neutral, I have much common ground with the Cornerstone Conservatives Jacob Rees-Mogg, William Hague, Boris Johnson, Peter Bone kinda guys.

There not polling anywhere near enough in the constituencies for that number of seats. Check out Lord Ascrofts polling. Carswell might have a better chance than Reckless though as he is more popular an MP in his constituency.

Lord Ashcroft is a Conservative and it is in his interest to poll UKIP low. If he can cause people to think UKIP have no chance in their constituency, he can convince many Ukippers to vote for the Conservatives.

I think many people underestimate UKIP's support in the North. I also think UKIP might get one seat in Scotland.

Nonsense, Ashcroft releases a publicly available database with every poll and so far no one from YOUGOV, IPSOS-Mori, or any of the other pollsters, have said his system skewed in anyones favour.

He just funds his polls, he doesn't do the actual maths in them.

UKIP would have to almost treble their national average to get a seat, they have no generational links and they have very little experience of a running a big general election campaign (The EU election was easier case turnout is low, no one cares and everyone votes against the Gov.)

And then there's the disaster of FPTP to get through, UKIP will get between 2 and 4, anymore than that and they'll have had a very good day

Well said eKell.

Like I said Harth I predict 1 to 2. And none in Scotland. Lol Farage gets ran out of Scotland everytime he goes there.

http://news.sky.com/story/1475174/farage-ukip-faces-obliteration-in-scotland

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/ge2015/nigel-farage-admits-chance-of-ukip-seat-in-scotland-is-a-little-remote-1.870910

I hadn't noticed his prediction on Scotland, they'll be lucky to get over 5% up there! The SNP will get 50-56 of the 58, the Tories will get 0-2, 1-3 Lib Dem and maybe 5-6 Labour. UKIP didn't even get an MEP up there last time out

^Actually, there's 1 UKIP MEP from Scotland. However, he might not he healthy enough to last it to the end of the current term of the European parliament.

^Exactly. He is kinda popular up there.

If I remember rightly they took the last slot? Anyway UKIP support has tailed off even since then. And it's definitely not concentrated in any area where they could get past the post first.

Even Farage admits Scotland isn't returning a UKIP MP. If their lucky they will get 3 across the UK. I still think 1 to 2.

On an aside it is a difficult situation where the Greens can poll 5-10% and return 1 MP in 650. UKIP poll around 12% and will return 2 MPs (Probably but anywhere between 0-6 is possible). Lib Dems also poll around 12% and they will return around 25 from 650.

Labour and Cons poll 32-34% and 32-36% and they will return in the 250-300 range each.

We had a vote on voting reform. But first past the post clearly disenfranchises large parts of the vote.

We had a vote on voting reform. But first past the post clearly disenfranchises large parts of the vote.

That's true, but when he had a referendum on AV, the no to AV campaign put out a bunch of lies to win. This was the sort of crap they put out in their political broadcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-obZ9OG_XKA

Guess what? There were enough people dumb enough to believe that. Of course AV isn't perfect, but it's better than FPTP, but I would prefer single transferable vote.

Edited 5/6/2015 08:21:38