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Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 13:56:44

myhandisonfire
Level 54
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RIDDLE no. I forgot to keep track. lets say 10

[WM]Szeweningen is creating a champions league tournament.
He tells you to pick a letter: A, B or C. Each letter represents a group, of which two happen to be extremely difficult and one is rather easy.
You decide to pick B. After you choose B, szeweningen reveals the group A to you, containing the following players: Timinator, [WM]Piggy, Luxis*apex, Frankdeslimste*apex. After that he gives you the option to change your prior pick towards C or stick with group B, in any case your decision has to be final.
What do you do assuming you want to have the best chances for an easy group?

I created a mini poll for this, but i was to inept to add it into the thread.
But here is the link in case you want to vote there too.

http://poll.pollcode.com/szgxg
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 14:00:34

Level 59
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Stay the same, having 2 accounts in the same tournament is a massive advantage, and would make almost any group an easy group.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 14:22:35

szeweningen
Level 60
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Ye old M H problem (initials shouldn't spoil the answer).
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 14:29:01

powerpos
Level 48
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you switch groups.
see, at first you had `1/3rd chance to pick the easy group.
after your pick, [WM]Szewingen reveals one of the two groups you didn't choose, i m assuming that *if* group A was the easy group, he would 've shown group C, as to not reveal which is the easy group.
If he does it this way, the chance that group C is the easy group is 2/3rd,
because 1/3rd chance is still saying group B is the easy group, but 2/3rd chance says group B isn't the easy group, and he already showed you group A not being the easy group.
(he could also not care about which group he shows, in that case it doesn't matter, as long as you don't pick group A)

(pffft, i hope this wall-o-text makes sense :P )
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 14:36:08

szeweningen
Level 60
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Yes, your solution is correct (although to fully explain it you should say that 1/3*0+2/3*1=2/3>1/3). It is called the Monty Hall problem or Monty Hall paradox.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 14:38:54

myhandisonfire
Level 54
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incorrect.
I am too dumb for this.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 15:04:01

Aranka
Level 43
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Correct answer is: Doesn't matter which group it is

I'll go for team A

The tournament is not a 1vs1 strat so facing Dead Piggy is already an easy win, Timinator is likely to get booted and one of the apex guys will have a bad day.
3 wins means you qualify for the next round = score
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 15:08:15

Level 59
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I didn't read your quiz first, and it seems you got there first. I retract my smart ass answer and put my thinking cap on.

This isnt the Monty Hall problem, you autist. I hate it when people dont read the question, they just see what they want to see. "Oh, I recognise this pattern, I will just sit here and bask in my own smug satisfaction at knowing the proof off the top of my head, rather than critically evaluate what is in front of me". And then you bust out some algebra for the ladies.

The difference is, in TMHP the person asking you whether you want to switch (sze) lays out the rules first, most importantly that he will reveal the players in a group you dont pick. In this case sze could have been going to reveal group A's players no matter what you picked.

So I suppose its the 3rd option.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 15:10:47

Level 59
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Strategic 1v1 is not the template I am best at, and you will never have an easy win against me stinky aranka.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 15:25:26

szeweningen
Level 60
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Wow piggy, you get more stupid by the minute, you try to lecture me on game theory in one of the most famous problems... It is not relevant in the monty hall problem whether or not you know beforehand you will have the opportunity to switch or not, the only thing important to the decision making process is the fact that you get the opportunity to switch. Even if the group that is revealed is fixed (for example A group) given that yuo have no prior information to the competition (making your initial choice perfectly random) you will want to switch.

I) The group revealed is fixed initially, suppose A:
Ia) A is easy ---> 1/3 chance to stay (if you pick initially A), 2/3 chance to switch
Ib) A is hard ---> if you pick A you will always switch, if you pick B or C switching is irrelevant at this point IF you know that you are in position Ib

II) The group revealed is fixed after your initial choice:
You should switch, explanation above.

Since you have no initial information about how the host (in that version me) decided too choose groups it is obvious the dominant strategy is switching since you know Ia was ruled out.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 15:51:58

[WM] įµį““į“±šš»š²š­š°š®
Level 59
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bullsht. i see no paradox here. the odds change from 1/3 1/3 1/3 to 1/2 1/2 for me and i stick to what i've already chosen (regardless whether the names in A are considered one of the stronger groups or not - if they are the weaker, then i care even less, because i would not be lucky anyway)
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 15:54:08

Level 59
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All you know when he offers you to switch or not, is that there is a hard and an easy group left between group B and C. You have no other information. You have no reason to think that the group you have already picked once is either hard or easy.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:10:28

powerpos
Level 48
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to be a bit more clear, i 've seen the same-kind of riddle, and usually the rule is that the quizzer shows you an option you do *not* want to choose, meaning that if you didn't choose the option you wanted(2/3rd chance), going for the left-over option gives you the best option.
thoough myhand wasn't clear on on what grounds [WM]swezingen chose to reveal group A, so it could just as well not matter at all.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:22:44

Qi
Level 55
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if myhand is too dumb, sze is autistic and piggy is "more stupid" by the minute, who is the least intelligent and who is the most intelligent?
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:27:53

À la recherche du temps perdu
Level 35
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I am not more stupid by the minute. Like the rest of his post, Sze based that statement off some incorrect assumptions.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:30:04

Qi
Level 55
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incorrect. hint: autism.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:46:26

szeweningen
Level 60
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Read what I wrote again... the fact that you don't understand it does not make it wrong.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:58:58

icvotria
Level 5
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"All you know when he offers you to switch or not, is that there is a hard and an easy group left between group B and C. You have no other information. You have no reason to think that the group you have already picked once is either hard or easy."

You have the information that there is a 1/3 chance that B is easy, and a 2/3 chance that C is easy, so there's your reason to think that the group you already picked is hard.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 16:59:43

Jehovah
Level 58
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I'll stay in the same group. I get to play 4 top players and if i'm lucky, I'll win maybe 1 or 2, then i'll just show them to qi who immediately thinks i'm boasting and gets pissed off.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 17:02:28

Jehovah
Level 58
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Riddle 11

3 players, A,B,C decide to play a round robin. A beats B in 5 turns, B beats C in 8 turns, C beats A in 40 turns. Whos the best player?
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 17:22:30

Jehovah
Level 58
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i believe myhand intended this to be the montyhall problem, but just not phrased well.

In the monty hall problem, they use two goats and a car. we'll use two hard teams and one easy team

So sze holds the competition, and there are three teams,
Team A: piggy, frank, luxis, timi (hard group)
Team B: mannerheim, superhuge, dunga, gnuffone (hard group)
Team C: General Arun, Motocross, Hellbender, warlightrat (easy group)

now, say, these 3 groups hide behind 3 doors, door 1,2,3 and you are asked to pick a door. The door you pick will be the team you play with for a chance to qualify for the final rounds.

Say you pick door 1 and before it is opens, sze opens door 3, revealing team piggy and his team, looking at pictures of aranka. Then sze asks you whether or not you want to change to door 2 or stick to door 1.

Assuming you want the easy group, do you switch?

monty hall problem^^^
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 19:09:32

myhandisonfire
Level 54
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and yes this time i didnt phrase it well.
Because phrasing it the way i want to would get me banned.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 19:39:43

Seahawks
Level 51
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lol, to falcons riddle (notice how he doesn use his original account now that this one has membership) b is the best player, because a is a crappy player that refuses to quit (like motocross) and only won the five turn game on complete luck, since b beat c, b is the better player
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/11/2013 23:49:53

Jehovah
Level 58
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its not because of the membership, i cant, my old accounts lags like hell. fizzer says its because of this order queue thing warlight uses.

What if, sweahawks, i told you a and b saw each other on turn 2, and kept deploying armies for 58 turns straight? Suddenly on turn 60, B attacks A, and B has a lot less armies. But A has vanished from Warlight, and B gets a boot win. So whos the better player?
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/12/2013 04:11:05

Seahawks
Level 51
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well they are both pretty bad, but a is better because b ended up attacking, why did neither expand at all?
Think² with myhandisonfire: 5/12/2013 05:26:38

Najdorf
Level 46
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>implying group A is difficult
Think² with myhandisonfire: 6/3/2013 14:25:29

Ravera
Level 44
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no more thinking? :(
Think² with myhandisonfire: 6/3/2013 15:00:29

x
Level 58
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Maybe we could have āThink with Aranka.
Think² with myhandisonfire: 6/3/2013 15:05:03

[WM] Anonymous
Level 52
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Think² with myhandisonfire: 6/3/2013 15:16:19