There's an argument to be made that all high level play is an excercise in risk management. There are no 100% strategies or decisions in high level 1v1 play. That doesn't mean it's all luck, either. Instead, you look for necessary decisions verses optional decisions. Necessary decisions require either very high success rates (90%+) or appropriate backup plans ("If he attacks this bonus with all his troops, I can break this bonus of his elsewhere."). Optional plans take a long view on the stats, and pick a plan that generally will work out to your advantage. Making four 3v2 attacks to complete two bonuses is generally better than making three 4v2 attacks and only completing one bonus. Chances are good that you will have one bonus with the 3v2s, and if you do get that second bonus you can get ahead. I think that's the kind of moves Warlightvet might be advocating. The 4v2 attacks are sure things, but guarantee a slower start than a plan that completes two bonuses. An alternate, which may be the type of move that Warlightvet is actually advocating, is to make all 3v2 attacks during expansion in an attempt at getting way ahead, with the potential to be far behind.

Making all 3v2 attacks is riskier than making a mix of 3v2 and 4v2 attacks, but if you only ever made 4v2 attacks you could not win in high level play. Therefore it's obvious to see that the requirement to make some 3v2 attacks becomes risk management, whereas risk aversion is sub-optimal play.

I use 3v2 to expand and 4v2 to finish to the last bonus territory.

"2. I would only do so if you think you are going to get all 3 spots for sure, you don't think your opponent will have a spot nearby, and you will lock in a bonus after turn 1. And with all of that, I still probably wouldn't do it."

That seems off.

Typically the reason to triple-pick is because they WILL have a spot nearby. You get an early surge of income, but your long-term expansion is hindered, as such you need to be able to shove that early income down their throat ASAP before they have a chance to pass you in income.

I think he meant a spot too close for you to complete your bonus before they were able to attack you. A first turn bonus in W Africa works better if they are in Bolivia than Brazil.