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std. dev for attack/defend kills?: 6/24/2010 12:25:50

mindgrapes
Level 11
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Question for Randy probably, unless there are any math geeks out there that figured this out themselves...

WHat's the standard deviation for the normally distributed kill rates?
std. dev for attack/defend kills?: 6/24/2010 13:25:16

Matma Rex
Level 12
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I think this help page is what you're looking for: http://www.warlight.net/ViewHelp.aspx?s=LuckModifier
std. dev for attack/defend kills?: 6/24/2010 18:23:04

Duke
Level 5
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It's a range equal to half the percentage luck is set to (e.g. 75%) applied to the result if luck were set to zero. So if you attacked with 100, luck at zero = 60 killed, with luck at 75% it's plus or minus 75% of 60 (+/- 45), divided by 2 or 38.5-82.5).

If luck is set to zero, only the remainders are random. So an attack with 6, which would kill 3.6, would kill 4 60% of the time and 3 40% of the time.

HTH
std. dev for attack/defend kills?: 6/25/2010 00:08:29

mindgrapes
Level 11
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Hmm, ok i think i misread the luck page. when it says the numbers are "randomed as normal" it doesn't mean "randomed in a normal distribution", it's just integers.
std. dev for attack/defend kills?: 6/25/2010 12:42:38

joboo1979
Level 2
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huh?
std. dev for attack/defend kills?: 7/17/2010 15:03:28

Gorzki
Level 6
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Duke I'm pretty sure yoou are wrong

Your way of counting it is kinda complicated, also it doesn't match an info from combat system

http://www.warlight.net/ViewHelp.aspx?s=Attacks

specifically:
"25 armies attack a territory that has 20 armies.
The attacking 25 armies could have killed between 0 and 25, but on average they will kill 15 (60% of 25). Let's say they kill 15 armies."

So it seems logical to me, that thi is how it works:

1st number of killed armies is calulated as follows:
(number of armies) x (Offensive/Defensive Percentage)

2nd number of killed armies is obtained by rolling randomly for each attacking army if it killed the enemy or not.

So If you attack with 3 armies and 60% chance you have:
40% * 40% * 40% = 6.4% not to kill anyone
60% * 60% * 60% = 21.6% kill all 3 enemies
3 * 60% * 60% * 40% = 43.2% to kill 2 enemies
3 * 60% * 40% * 40% = 28,8% to kill 1 enemy

Then those results are averaged with weight depending on luck percentage

with luck percentage on 30% we will have in my example

(100-30)% * 3 armies * 60% offensive rate + 30% * 2 (lets assume most probable result of random rolls) = 1.86

Leaving 86% to kill 2 armies and 14 percent to kill 1 army

Try creating games with dfferent luck percentage and use analaze tool - you will see how decreasing luck percentage changes transition win/loose from a curve into sharp barrier

With luck distribution 100% you have pure "each army has separate 60% chance to kill enemy"
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