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Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 12:00:25

professor dead piggy 
Level 59
Timinators wins play out like a story. There is a strong story arc and a beginning middle and end. When he understands the requirements of a board he has the vision to play it out to a win without ever seeming like he is more than enough danger to entertain a viewer. From turn 0 he telegraphs to you how hes going to win and then follows his nose. I assume this is because he has played so many games he has had ample opportunity to spot the patterns that lead to wins. If you want to learn some of these patterns and how to play them out then these are the games to put in your playbook. Timi uses dunga's account in the first 2 games shown because hes too cool.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5436640 2 Turn 11 income: Very simple, you put all three picks in or around the bonuses with 4 territories and at the end of turn 2 you have 11 income almost guaranteed. If this pick strategy is available on the board then much like a FTB you either pick it or pick to play against it, there is no middle ground. This board has another strategy defning piece of terrain; the supersafe cluster around australia. As soon as timi has an advantage (high income) he gets very aggressive, with a huge stack into malaysia on turn 3. A 2turn 11income makes a trade off, short term you get high income, mid term you get low income. The best way to make use of a short term advantage is playing very aggressively, to try and turn it into a long term advantage like clearing an enemy from an area. Timi is somewhat wrong footed when it turns out ulti isnt in australia, but notice timi isnt actually in any danger. His plan simply continues playing out, because it considered contingencies like finding only neutrals in aus, he made a small attack in SA.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4647547 The supersafe cluster around australia. Clearly both players are going to have to pick Indo first and aus second. The question is what will the other 2, supporting picks be? Africa Vs Europe is, all things being equal, much easier for africa, even though africa typically gives lower income and worse expansion options. Thats because africa is easy to defend. Hold Algeria and Egypt and youre safe. This gives the player in africa the initiative because theyre not forced to chase attacking stacks like a european player is, they can expand or fight elsewhere. The fight in aus is eye catching but ultimately irrelevent. Watch how timi picks and plays the real africa vs europe story.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4664032 Picking for safety. Here timi is back in his original account. South america & central america are very safe if played out a certain way, timi spots it and then does it. Its pretty much as simple as that. Timi's starting 3 are safe and dunga's arent so dunga has to forego caucasus and kill extra neutrals in africa, and ends up losing after getting the same income a little slower and at slightly higher cost.

Stepping it up a level with a game from timis new ladder run http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6330854 On this map there are a bunch of picking strategies in contention, so unlike the others its not as simple as spot the one that dominates the others through one simple positional querk. His observation is that with the top 3 he selects he can dominate the bottom half of the board by taking antarctica first to counter a potential 2 turn 10 income from indo/aus. He can then play africa vs eurasia with the advantage. We dont get to see that because he gets a counter pick he made, we see him play that out with a nicely timed ambush.

Conversley, when he loses its a shit show of confused bumbling and tail chasing as he flounders for an edge. Definitely as entertaining as the wins.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=5621253 A totally acceptable picking strategy chosen by both players. Get contact on turn 0 and a cluster of a 4income 5 territory bonus to back it up. Its a very sound strategy that works especially well when its unexpected and the other guy has his 2 picks unclustered. Unforunatley timi takes a totally unjustified swing on turn 6 and we get to see lawm play out the game almost without fault. Seriously, each of lawms turns is bang on the money, without relying on prediction.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4990810 The board has way too many options and neither timi nor i can see a picking strategy that dominated long term. Timi, confused, picks almost the same as mother wucky but slightly worse and goes for the easily countered central russia bonus first.

So it seems the best way to beat timi is pick the same as him and wait for him to do something stupid.
Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 14:19:39

Level 59
I like these threads, especially the metaphor safe pick = sitting comfortably :D
Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 21:33:04

{rp} Clavicus Vile 
Level 55
These are very good threads! I have nothing to add, but well done.
Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 21:35:33

Widzisz • apex 
Level 60
Second game, seem like a provocation to me...

It's not so one sided game, and I disagree aus is completely irrelevant. It is more important than situation around Europe imo. Not sure why you applaud Timi here, he could open the border there sooner, before unknown captured US...
Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 21:43:56

Level 60
Clearly both players are going to have to pick Indo first and aus second.

I see at least a few options you could consider using the fact that 1/2 in indo/aus is likely. You could try to triple pick west china and attempt to take southeast asia with a big stack in Thailand to try and break indo and/or australia quickly since you should assume after finishing aus, your opponent will expand elsewhere since he cannot get indo yet, so he'll expand either in scan, or start expanding in indo (if he has africa he can't take it yet likely). In any case I think worse case scenario you have 14vs14 income with a bigger stack in Thailand, it's unclear whether you'll win from here since it requires very careful calculation.

The second try is to pick africa 1/2, indo/aus 3/4 and 5 in east china. Here you'd have to rely on predicting your opponents 3rd pick to be scan. The goal here is to move in east china every turn, get 13 income and ram into indonesia.

I think it is a provocation Widzisz, I don't think piggy's analysis is supposed to be rubbish.
Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 22:01:07

Timinator • apex 
Level 64
I hope to see more of those analysis, especially from my losses to further improve my picking and gameplay :)
Are you sitting comfortably?: 6/2/2014 22:23:20

Angry Beavers
Level 57
Nice games and nice analysis:) i like this a lot also. And also the feedback from others.
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