I would have picked the same as piggy here. And I dont like A at all.

The biggest argument you can make on CA vs SA is if you start SA and clear CA, it's much easier to take then starting CA and clearing SA. SA is offensively relevant, while CA has to be played more defensively which will be weird.

It's not like I really want A here, I think there's much better options. From A-D though, A is the most likely to succeed.

I think he made the exact same picks as us and has the counter in china. To find out whether that's true we should move in china to border him there. Gives us some intel. If he is in china then neither side has a safe bonus. If he is in Africa then he has to dedicate the first 2 turns to taking it and cannot defend either of his other warlords. So if we make a 3v2 in Russia to pressure him if he tries to take scand then we can also try to clear him in CA. I dislike killing all these neutrals but the china/Russia warlords are quite useless.

3v2 to Moscow, 3v2 to hong kong, 8v2 to panama.

Next turn if he hasn't moved in panama and has got china then we have a guess, whether we hit in scand or CA. if the 3v2 hit, if not we are fucked.

If he has moved in panama and is in china then go all in to scand and make an attack in CA.

If he isn't in china then he has Africa probably and we hit in CA. He will make 3v2s in Africa and deploy 2 in CA for 6 defenders. We will have attacked with 8 getting 6 or 7 leftovers +5= 10 or 11 attackers for a good chance of clearing him. He can try to run but if he gets first move and misses a 3v2 we will get him next turn. He has other options here like put 5 down in CA to make it 10 or 11v9. That can go either way for us depending on luck.

We got first pick which here leaves us without essential intel, and no scand so we are losing right out of the gate. Interestingly making china our 6th pick was actually worse than making Africa our 6th pick but we didn't spot it.

Taking SA or China first might be more palatable to the world, but its just as risky. Going to scand with everything is basically a gamble that he tries to complete it on turn 2, if he doesn't then you aren't going to clear him there for another 2 turns. BUT even if he does then he will send 4 to finland 5 to Norway and can easily transfer to finland at the start of the next turn when he sees us. If we get 2nd move we are fairly wrecked. If we get first then we will be in a slightly better position but still cannot clear him by force. So even if attacking all to Moscow works out ideally for us then we still don't get much advantage from it. That is the hallmark of a bad strategy.

China is basically a gamble that his 5 and 6 weren't east and west china. I think the chances of that are about 20%. Getting this guess wrong is not gg but it makes a bad situation worse.

SA could go a few ways. If he takes scand first we have a good position because of our higher income. He will make a 4v2 to cuba or pananama on turn 2 and see what we have done. We will see that he is in china and know what he has done. If he does anything weird like try to clear us in Russia or china then he will lose. If he has Africa he will have same income but much more safety and we will be losing but have options like force a fight in Russia or china and threaten to clear him there, or complete our bonus there. Not good options, but they give us some chance. If he comes hard to panama a la piggy then we lose but he wont do that.

Edited 4/24/2014 01:40:22

What did we get? I'm sure its in here somewhere, just don't see it

I don't think lolo posted yet. SA, Russia, east china.

I'm still waiting on the entire panel to decide on appropriate moves. Afterwards I"ll make a new thread. PIggy you should copy and paste his argument onto there.

Edited 4/24/2014 03:28:47