Good starting locations... not huge on your 4-6 picks but the first three were good. Taking Antarctica first turn was good as well but you should have attacked Norway as well with the 3 in the hope of being able to secure that bonus the following turn.
After that you stopped being efficient... never attack with more than 4 unless there is a good reason to do so. There wasn't in Scandinavia on turn 2 or in Central America later that turn. Once you met your opponent you should have been more defensive and slowed your expansion since it was clear he was throwing everything at you. Had you just sat and kept defending with sufficient armies you would have worn him down in time.
OK, so where did I go wrong this time: 2/28/2012 19:46:36
Other than some minor efficiency mistakes, you didn't do a whole lot wrong here. You had a higher income than him, better prospects for expansion, and better picks generally.
You should have focused more of your efforts into protecting Brazil, instead of expanding quite as much as you did. You also tried to expand in several different directions at the same time (Mexico, Australia, and some wasted troops in Scan that were not needed to take Scan). Throw those extra troops into Brazil each turn, and your higher income would have held out. Putting extra troops into finishing Mexico probably wasn't a huge mistake, but not using the troops that it gave you for defense became one.
Consider expanding into Greenland or Australia first, since they were not near him.
But let's say that you were intent on expanding, even if you lost Brazil. You knew that he was putting 16 troops into Nigeria each turn, and you can tell at what point he would be able to break your bonus. Before that point, drop 9-10 troops back to Argentina and blockade, while the other troops move to protect Mexico. Your goal isn't really to keep him out of Mexico, but just make it hard or impossible for him to complete the bonus. While he's trying to pin you down, that's when you finish Australia, Greenland, etc.
When you surrendered it was 16 to 14, and you still had better expansion prospects. A little forethought into a defense after losing Brazil, and you could have out-expanded him very quickly. Being down 2 a turn is not a losing prospect, and you didn't have to surrender there.
OK, so where did I go wrong this time: 2/28/2012 23:02:25
What other people said is true, but you also have to work on predicting where hes going to be.
After you got your picks, look at the map. You know hes not going to be starting in a wasteland bonus. So you know hes not going to be mid or west russia. You can assume hes not going to be starting in east russia either because its an inefficient bonus. He won't be starting in east china or indonesia either because of the wastelands.
India is a possible starting location but it has poor expansion and bad "angles". If you're playing a good player i wouldnt expect India in that situation.
Caucasus and Europe are out because they are too big to be good starts. East and West US are also inefficient so assume he wont be there. Australia was a possibility but your on territory in antarctica covers two in Australia so don't worry about him being there early on. Greenland was a possibility but it had poor expansion -- I wouldn't *expect* him to be there and probably wouldn't prepare for it.
Because of this picks you got, i would expect him to start with 2 in africa and 1 in central America. After getting antarctica on turn 1, i would put all my income into Aregentina and attack up to central america. If hes there, you break his bonus immediately and go from there. If hes not, try to finish south america by attacking with 3's and put the rest of your income into attacking brazil. Next turn you break into africa -> win.
OK, so where did I go wrong this time: 3/2/2012 20:06:33
Thanks for you answers, though I still don't get how come 37 attack 21, and overruns with only 16 loss. My games so far have been that the first player to go ahead in income wins, so given he'd got so many more armies and a 2 income lead, I still think think I'd surrender, though I can see how I could have stretched it out for a while.
Anyway, thanks for the feedback.
OK, so where did I go wrong this time: 3/2/2012 20:20:15
You are confused by 37 attacking 21 and winning? Why? That's nearly 2-1 ratio and should win.
With standard kill rates, 37 is expected to defeat 22 (37*0.6 = 22.2) and the 21 is expected to kill 15 (21*0.7 = 14.7). So the fact that 16 died means you were actually lucky and killed more than expected.
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