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What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 14:59:08

Qi 
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Protestors have controlled the central square in Kiev for about three months. About 100 died in the last week or so. The Party of the Regions gave up its power in the Rada (Legislature). Timochenko is going to be released from "hospital arrest." Her party has gained a majority in the Rada, controls the Ministry of the Interior, and is expected to vote to force Yanukovych (who has fled to his "fief" in the east) to resign. The police released a communique saying they support Timochenko's party. The army recently said it won't get involved. Governors of the Party of the Regions are holding a special meeting in the east (with Russian officials in attendance) to discuss what they will do.

Edited 2/22/2014 15:18:55
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:04:59


{rp} Julius Caesar 
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Well I expect Russian backed Ukranian Troops to march on protestors causing a civil war. Some European nations will send troops to back the democratic people (Germany, Poland, maybe Romania and Italy) causing a small proxy war between communism and Capitalism. Obama wont do anything because he is scared of Putin and world scrutiny, America would stick to moral support and Trade sanctions on Russia and Yanukovich backed Ukraine.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:15:21


The Great Pulsius 
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The opposition should have imprisoned Yanukovych when they had the chance in Kiev. Now he has fled to Charkov and gotten Russian support.

I cannot imagine Yanukovych returning as President of whole Ukraine. A split in East Ukraine and West Ukraine is not out of the question. Much depends on how strongly Russia is willing to back Yanukovych.

Yulia Timochenko will return to power unless the gets killed in Charkov, where she currently resides because of medical problems.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:22:25


UnlimitedLawlz
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For as important as this may be, it should still be in off-topic
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:28:36

Qi 
Level 55
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Rada voted Yanukovych is not exercising his constitutional duties and has voted to have an election on May 25th...
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:28:51


Belgian Gentleman 
Level 56
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What does this topic on the general forum , who's going to make a warlight map about the civil war in Ukraine?
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:32:17


UnlimitedLawlz
Level 54
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I don't see how you would make a MAP about the civil war. Maybe a scenario...
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:33:38

Qi 
Level 55
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Edit: Bad, insulting and condescending words about why categories matter on a game site when a regime change/coup d'etat/revolution is taking place involving the EU and two superpowers who are guarantors of Ukraine's stability.

Edited 2/22/2014 15:39:40
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 15:34:54


UnlimitedLawlz
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Fucking forums nazis


NEIN! ZIS THREAD MUST BE IN ZE OFF-TOPICS!!!!!

Edited 2/22/2014 16:12:10
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 16:01:43


Mudderducker 
Level 57
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Nothing they've signed peace
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 16:09:35


UnlimitedLawlz
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I blame the EU. I mean, Ukraine kinda told them to "fuck off", but I blame Brussels specifically
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 16:10:02


The Great Pulsius 
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NEIN! ZIS FORUM MUST BE IN ZE OFF-TOPICS!!!!!


If you want the General Forum to be a subforum of the Off-Topic Forum, then please make a uservoice. Thanks.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 16:11:46


UnlimitedLawlz
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Again, I blame Brussels :p
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 16:17:54


The Great Pulsius 
Level 57
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The opposition declares to have seized control over Kiev.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 18:12:24


[WM] ᵀᴴᴱ𝓕𝓻𝓲𝓭𝓰𝓮 
Level 59
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Hellbender - they are no longer communist. It's actually been that way for a "few" years.. ehmm.. decades.. so.. Either you're trolling, or you're to ignorant to reply to you..

Apollo - It's only wishful thinking to believe this sh** of a treaty will change anything. They reversed the constitution for now, and released Юлія Тимошенко, however this is only being calm before the storm.

Pulsius - the fact you seem to miss is that ukrainian authorities did not move the biggest caliber - the Army.. As far as I know Ukraine has one problem - they don't have police prevention forces with water cannons, calming gasses etc. They have nothing between a guy with a bat + a rubber ball gun and a fully armed policeman with an AK47 or whatever they use..

IMHO The big questions are:

how far will the uprisers go?

what reaction can we expect from all the other countries - especially Russia?
(which has the most to gain or lose in the process)

will the country keep it's unity, or divide itself into two separate parts?
as the geographical division between the pro- and against-gov population is rather vivid... and last but not least:

on which side will the Ukrainian Army join the conflict..?
After all in the shadows, there may be high ranked officers willing to help the people overtake the government with their men.. and most likely becoming future semi-authoritar rulers of the country.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 18:18:21


Min34 
Level 60
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I thought the Ukrainian Army had already said not to take a side.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 18:42:37


[WM] ᵀᴴᴱ𝓕𝓻𝓲𝓭𝓰𝓮 
Level 59
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I have no alts.


I said it, right?
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 18:50:52

Tyrone
Level 51
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Oh Ukraine, expect to see some sort of split between East and West Ukraine after this...
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 18:56:22


The Great Pulsius 
Level 57
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The Ukrainian military doesn't want to get involved in the power struggle. The constitution of the country prohibits the army from meddling with internal affairs, says chief of staff Iljin.

At least for the moment, the army doesn't want to interfere, i.e. they give their silent acceptance to the coup by the opposition.

Maybe the military wants to wait and see which side comes out on top and then side with them. I count their current neutrality as a victory for the opposition, as it is clear that they don't follow Yanukovych's orders. In any case, the Ukrainian border patrol has prevented Yanukovych from crossing the border to Russia.

The police of Kiev has already given their open support to the opposition.



Above you can see the country's division in Pro-Russians and Pro-Europeans. Yanukovych has support in the east, and many of the eastern provinces have openly put the parliament's recent decisions in question.

Below a map of spoken languages. The language lines follow exactly the political lines.



Edited 2/22/2014 19:15:16
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 18:58:28


{rp} Julius Caesar 
Level 46
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Let's be honest here Russia is communist with a democratic facade for americas sake. Putin will leave when hes dead. Hes in control
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 19:09:44


Kenny • apex 
Level 59
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Then they're not communist, they're fascist...
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 19:46:19


[WM] ᵀᴴᴱ𝓕𝓻𝓲𝓭𝓰𝓮 
Level 59
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Hellbender - read a bit about different systems of the state - do it BEFORE you post or you will sound more and more stupid.

Lolowut - it's neither communism nor fascism. However Russia's damn close to fascism indeed.

Pulsius - your maps don't include many minorities like for example polish.. but the maps' pretty good at showing what i meant anyway..
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 19:59:45


The Great Pulsius 
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Pulsius - your maps don't include many minorities like for example polish..

I'm so sorry for leaving these important parts away :'(

Edited 2/22/2014 20:04:35
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 20:48:50


Gnullbegg 
Level 49
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In the end, Putin will get 'his' way with 'his' idea of this Greater Eurasian Co-Pauperity Sphere - and the world will have become an even shittier place to live for many people (if you haven't noticed, this is quite a trend in this millenium so far). Why? "fuck the EU", that's why.

The EU, evidently, is far less imterested in post-Imperialism than Russia is, esp. if it is for reasons other than money, that is esp. in the case of a country as strategically/economically insignificant as the Ukraine. It's simply not important enough a country to be worth the effort and/or beef with the Tsar.

See, the Russian Government doesn't have this much of a problem with austerity than many European Governments do because most Russians haven't known anything but austerity for their entire lives. So everyone's favourite KGB asset has it much easier when it comes to worthier goals than providing for 'your own people' - goals such as national prestige, regional hegemony, etc.

Don't think so? Remember the 90s and Yugoslavia? Rwanda? Or, yeah, what about this one country in the Levant somewhere... what's it called again? Doesn't matter really, but I've heard it has become quite a shithole over the course of the last three years...

The question is only: will the Ukraine get the Belorussian or the Georgian treatment? Or will it be the Syrian one?
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 20:58:46


Kenny • apex 
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@Fridge: I'm not really declaring what government they are, it's just what Hell Bender specifically said is fascist, not communist. I'm aware Russia isn't completely fascist yet, but I'm sure eventually that they will get there though.

Bosnia is also up in flames if anyone really cares. Whatever happens, the president that the United States has right now would be unable to properly take a serious action in this issue. From what you guys are talking about the EU looks like they're also going to pussyfoot the situation. A real shame. Guess Russia wins this one.
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 21:08:43

Ryan
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Edited 2/22/2014 21:09:28
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/22/2014 22:10:51


ps 
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526 WikiLeaks cables referencing #Yanokovych - http://is.gd/d5is6W
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/23/2014 01:14:14


Michael the Jester
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Pulsius has a very good point and has proven it very well ... anyways i believe we should support the rebels in the case of a civil war
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/23/2014 01:39:24

Qi 
Level 55
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I agree. Aside from Ukraine itself, Russia has the most to gain or lose. Why is Ukraine important to Russia: pipelines, naval base, Russian Ukrainians (Russia's population is declining, so maybe Russians in Ukraine have special meaning to Russia), geographic proximity, cultural and linguistic similarities, investments, Russian mafia in Ukraine, Ukraine already joined Russia's sphere of influence (this is what started the protests, so a volte-face would be a huge loss of face, and after the glorious Sochi games, I doubt Russia will accept such a diplomatic failure).

The big questions: What will Putin do? How far will the Party of the Regions and Yanukovych go? How widespread will the opposition's support be as this plays out? What will the US and EU do?

Edited 2/23/2014 01:45:27
What is going to happen to Ukraine?: 2/23/2014 01:55:00

Qi 
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The Yanukovych argument for closer ties with Russia has been an economic argument: The EU has not offered us anything to help us immediately, Russia has. Sure, there is certainly more to it than that. But if the US and/or EU could offer a competitive aid package in addition to a path to eventual EU membership, the Yanukovych types would have to show their cards.

It is sad really. Ukraine should be able to have close ties with Russia, the EU and the US, based on what the Ukrainians want.
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