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Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/6/2012 22:59:42

mosquitero_retired
Level 40
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.... but sooooo hard to get!

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?GameID=2090104

Focus on my humble efforts in turn 13 and 14 to get England bonus by taking Southwest England. ENJOY :D!

Not to talk of my so-called teammate with sooo decent stats surrendered before the game really has begun. Warlight at its best :D !
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/6/2012 23:11:56


Ace Windu 
Level 56
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lol thanks for that man, got a laugh out of me :D
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/6/2012 23:51:28


Richard Sharpe 
Level 59
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Ooof... that is miserable. The very reason I refuse to play with 75% luck.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 08:22:31


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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Two major points:

1. Perrin, I think EVERYONE agrees about the 75% luck, it is a personal crusade to get rid of this setting for non-members. I understand Fizzer needs to make money for all his hard work, and thus needs incentives to do so. However, in my opinion 75% vs 15% luck are totally different games. I guess it is a good incentive, because when Chaos got too busy with ladders to create games, he basically ordered me to buy membership.

2. In a 2v2, I generally surrender after a teammate does. I am sure some of the better players can win a 2v1, but I cannot deal with fighting two enemies that BOTH have larger income than me. Any thoughts on this? Do the better players soldier on, and if so, how often do you lose?
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 10:09:21

RvW 
Level 46
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To each their own of course, but "real" (physical) games, such as the original Risk, have 100% luck; why do people have such huge issues with 75% luck...!?
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 10:10:31


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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/thinks of something to post in which your response would make sense as a response to it, and instead decides to post his thoughts on what he was thinking about trying to come up with*
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 10:20:44


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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Because, while this game might be BASED on Risk, it ain't Risk. I learned the basics of WL, like I expect most people did, on 1v1 autogames, or games created by friend who are members. As such, I learned to play with proper (in my mind, 15%) luck. But many of the strategies one develops for 15% luck games are simply useless in a game with 75%. If you don't hate 75% luck, I wonder if you have ever spent 3 turns trying to break a neutral (4v2, 4v1, 4v1) before you get it. That's bullshit, in my opinion.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 11:49:42


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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i learned this game pre-membership... and enjoyed the variances caused by high luck.... low luck is too much micro management and meta gaming imho..
spoken as a casual player
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 11:58:57


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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Perrin, that is true, and I also learned the game pre-membership. I was just lucky in that Chaos is a friend, and he LOVES creating games, so that I basically learned the game pre-membership BUT with low luck. Maybe it creates different playing styles, but that is just the way I prefer the game.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 12:35:12


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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when I said pre-membership.. I meant before membership existed..

I used 75% luck because that was the default.. there was no auto-games, there wasn't a thriving community to play specific game types with... you played what came up, and you played what you made.. I tended to play alot with my friends, and found that although 75% luck will create those *%&#$ that!* moments, it also created a more casual environment in which a mediocre and a good player could play together without so large a gap being apparant between them..

16% luck is what I tend to play now, primarily because most of my friends have left, so I play to win more often then I play just to enjoy myself, which is what I feel it promotes.. if you mess up your first few turns with a 16% luck game against someone who knows what they are doing, might as well surrender.. 75% luck game, there's still hope, and there's less need/advantage in meta-gaming it, so it is more fun/appealing to the casual gamer
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 12:38:13


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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I just realized I joined warlight a year 5 months ago.. It didn't feel like that long..

another 10 months and I'll be half of Fizzers age.. wooo..?
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 12:51:23


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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I dunno when I joined, but I know when I really started playing. Was when I moved here about 6 months ago. More like 180 days, because I know my visa needs another stamp.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 13:02:23


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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it shows join date, and membership date on your profile..
If I remember properly, I was the first member *besides Fizzer*.. but I could of been beat out by a few other players that were online when I was sleeping..
that was also a long time ago.. almost a year now..?
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 13:10:02


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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You hafta consider what membership costs, relatively speaking. It costs much more here, relatively, than it does for people living in the US.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 15:04:09

The Duke of Ben 
Level 55
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I've heard people talk about the benefits of higher luck, but really, it just allows for some very odd situations to occur and break somebody who shouldn't have been broken.

I'd actually be in favor of high luck if there was a built in rebound factor for when it really screwed you or worked in your favor.

So, if you attacked 10 into 8 and won with zero casualties, you get a negative score that influences future fights until it evens out. The person who lost that fight gets a positive modifier that helps them to win in the future.

Right now, a person can lose a fight they should have won while their enemy wins a fight they should have lost, and there is nothing to compensate the fact that luck was the only deciding factor. The very next fight can go the same way and benefit the same player.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 15:19:48


Richard Sharpe 
Level 59
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While I get what you are saying Duke, my problem is that it's not realistic.

For one, in statistics it's a basic rule that past outcomes should have zero impact on future outcomes. Each action is an independent instance.

And second, it's far from realistic. There have been plenty of instances in military history where outnumbered forces won (sometimes decisively) or evenly matched forces were routed. Making it some cosmic balance just makes no sense in a real-world construct.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 15:38:29


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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actually, it makes sense realisticly to be quite the opposite.. if your military of 20,000 invades a place with a 7,000 man military.. and in a single skirmish you lose 5,000 while they only lose 700, it will provide a morale handicap to the larger army, showing them that they are more likely to lose, many of them will desert, and the smaller force will be encouraged by their past success... these factors would lend that the force that 'luck' favors, would actually be the force that gains advantage
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 15:41:09


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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I think the main difference between high luck likers and low luck likers are the preference between consistency and realism
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 16:29:56

RvW 
Level 46
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TexasJohn said:
|> Because, while this game might be BASED on Risk, it ain't Risk.

Risk was just an (the obvious) example. The same goes for the dice rolls in each and every other dice-based game out there, the order in which you draw your cards in card-based games, etc.

|> I learned the basics of WL, like I expect most people did, on 1v1 autogames, or games created by friend who are members. As such, I learned to play with proper (in my mind, 15%) luck. But many of the strategies one develops for 15% luck games are simply useless in a game with 75%.

Many of the strategies one develops for no-cards games (or reinforcements-cards-only games) are equally useless when abandon/blockade/airlift/diplomacy cards are in play. Strategies that work against the AI are by no means assured to work against real players (and vice-versa!). Strategies that work well on small maps might not work on big maps and strategies that work well on heavily-interconnected maps won't work on maps riddled with choke points. I think you see where I'm going...?
The way I see it (and you are of course fully entitled to disagree) is that one of the biggest attractions of this game is its near-limitless tuneability. If you only want to play at 16% luck, by all means, go ahead. But I don't think it makes much sense to act like people who disagree with you must be crazy. Different settings require different styles and strategies.
I'll probably get a membership someday, but the disability to select a luck level in no way speeds up my lameness (the limitations to the custom scenario editor and the fact it's the right thing to do are much more important if you ask me).

|> If you don't hate 75% luck, I wonder if you have ever spent 3 turns trying to break a neutral (4v2, 4v1, 4v1) before you get it. That's bullshit, in my opinion.

Sure that's bullshit, but there's two things you didn't mention:

- It works both ways: every once in a while you get ridiculously lucky, holding a territory you should've lost (or, capturing a territory which should've hold out against your invasion).
- It's a game of chance (in my mind; if you only play games at 16% luck, you might disagree :p ), so every once in a while, such bullshit is just part of it. Losing a Grand Prix or Indy race due to a flat tire is also incredibly lame, but there too, it's just part of the game. (On a related note, if you don't like luck..., why don't you simply turn it all the way down to 0%??)

---

The Duke of Ben said:
|> I'd actually be in favor of high luck if there was a built in rebound factor for when it really screwed you or worked in your favor.

Wouldn't that kinda defeat the purpose? Why have luck if you're going to force it to even-out in the long run anyway? Wouldn't it be a lot more sensible to simply do away with luck instead...?
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 16:55:10


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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Obviously, there is some psychological rule in play here, which I cannot identify, in which "random" events only piss you off if they go against you. Certainly it happens to me. I cry every time, when, in a ladder game, the opponent gets 3 or 4 first moves in a row. Yet I NEVER cry when it works out in my favor. I cannot comment on the times when I get "lucky" in 75% luck games, because I never play them. It is simply a matter of chocolate vs vanilla (not sure which is which, btw). I don't like 75% luck, so I don't play them.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 17:07:16


Richard Sharpe 
Level 59
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You are precisely right on the psychology of it. I know I only notice the instances where luck works against me (like having 7v4 fail twice in one game on 16%) and am utterly oblivious in those instances where it works in my favor.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 18:56:47


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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That being said, I prefer to play games with a decent luck percentage (at least in my addled brain). It is honestly the reason why I bought a membership (that and Christmas money). Chaos, my previous benefactor, was too busy with ladder games and forcefully suggested I just buy my own account to create all the games I wanted. And he is not a man (physically, if not mentally), to be messing with.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 19:32:00

mosquitero_retired
Level 40
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Hey guys, interesting discussion :-).

Does anyone know the precise probabilty for a fail of an attack of 4 verus a 1 neutral. Analyze function says 99% success meaning 1% fail. But i d like to know a more precise value.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 19:35:34


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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Depends on the luck percentage.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 19:49:29

Segrain
Level 21
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At 75% luck and 60% offensive kill rate, it's **0.01024**, or **1.024%**.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 20:14:11

mosquitero_retired
Level 40
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Thank you, Segrain. So the 1% already was quite precise.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 21:35:42

mosquitero_retired
Level 40
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BTW ... dont know if someone has noticed how brilliantly my opponent calling himself "Master-Chief" took bonus in turns 1 to 3. ALL his attacks from a 4 on a 2-neutral, not less than 8 in sequence, worked and gave him a quite honorable bonus after 3 turns. Just wonder how likely this is .... :D
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 21:55:48


Richard Sharpe 
Level 59
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Analyze tool says 88% chance of winning 4vs2 with 75% luck (too lazy to do the actual math).

Thus the chance of successfully winning 8 straight attacks is 0.88^8 = 36%... hardly an unreasonable result.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 22:02:46

mosquitero_retired
Level 40
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Hello Richard,

sorry, thats a misunderstanding. With "attack from a 4" i mean the attack on the 2-neutral is done with 3 attacking troops. So 8 such attacks in sequence worked for "Master-Chief" in turns 1,2 and 3. Excuse me for expressing myself so ambiguously.
Soooo close to England bonus ....: 2/7/2012 22:05:18

Segrain
Level 21
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I'm too lazy to calculate precise chance of 3vs2 attack, but according to Analyze tool it's about 0.69, so **0.0513798374428641** for eight of them, or about **5.138%**.
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