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Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 11:27:32


Angelic Arian 
Level 30
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Ok so here is the scenario I'm not sure on: I have 2 territories bordering a neutral (2 armies) one of mine has 4 armies (so 3 available for attacking) and the other has 2 armies (only 1 available for attacking)

So normally there is risk involved in attacking a 2 with 3 armies like 70% success rate but will attacking with 4 armies on the same turn from 2 separate territories act in the same way as 4 from 1 territory? As in a 100% probability of taking it? This knowledge would have been super useful in a recent game as I wanted to put 1 army somewhere else but was worried I wouldn't complete my bonus.

Any help kind sirs? :)
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 11:39:49


[WM] retrospekcja_jeza 
Level 58
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3vs2 is 80%, if you dont conquere you will kill 1 for sure, attacking 1 from another spot 1vs1 is 18% chance it means you get 1-(0.2*0.82)= 0,836 (83.6% to conquere terrytory)
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 11:52:51


[中国阳朔]TexasJohn 
Level 35
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Dunno if this helps, but two 3v2 (ie, 2 territories with 2 attacking armies each) will guarantee a capture. Put one on the territory with 2, attack with the 3, and make the 2 armies in the other territory attack only (ie, if you cap it with the initial attack, the others will stay put).
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 13:15:29


Angelic Arian 
Level 30
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Cool, yeah I was going to ask about 4 armies attacking from 2 separate territories (ie 2 attacking armies from each) I've seen some top players do that and its good to know its a 100% chance. Thanks for the info, guys. Now I know it was right of me to use that extra army :)
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 13:18:38


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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1v1 is generally a bad idea
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 13:47:43

Segrain
Level 21
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|> I was going to ask about 4 armies attacking from 2 separate territories (ie 2 attacking armies from each) I've seen some top players do that and its good to know its a 100% chance.

It's only "2 from one and 2 from another" that gives you 100% chance. "First attack with 3 and second attack with 1" gives, as calculated by retrospekcja_jeza, 0.836, and "first attack with 3, second attack with 1" gives 0.92.
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/20/2012 13:48:40

Segrain
Level 21
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Oops, a typo there - it's "first attack with 1, second attack with 3" for 0.92 chance, of course.
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/21/2012 09:15:33


Angelic Arian 
Level 30
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Yeah Sergin, sorry if I didn't articulate it properly :), that's what I meant to say. And 1 army then 3 armies gives you a 92% chance? That's awesome. I'll use that more. cheers again for the info.
Attacking 1 territory from 2 separate ones in the same turn: confused about probability!: 1/21/2012 10:00:42


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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if 1 attacks a 1, and they both succeed, *ie, both armies are killed* the 1 defender is resurrected.. that means that 70% of the chance is an instant loss.. and then you will win on average of 60% of the remainder..
1 attacking more then 1, will have a 60% chance to kill 1, regardless if it dies or not
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