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Adjusted winning number in profiles: 12/17/2011 14:36:06


Tick 
Level 56
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Something I'd like to see in people's profiles is a measure of how often a player wins compared to the number of times they're expected to win, just based on each team in a game having an equal chance to win.

If you've won 10 of 20 games that have two teams, that's fine - you've won the percentage of games that you should. If you've won 15 of 30 games that have three teams, that's much more impressive, since each team is only expected to win 1/3 of those games.

For each of the scenarios, the formula for how many games you won compared to how many you were expected to win is:
X = (W/T)/(1/N)
where W = games won, T = total games, N = number of games played

In the examples above, for two team games, X = (10/20)/(1/2) = 1
For three team games, X = (15/30)/(1/3) = 1.5

To get the overall profile winning number, it would just be weighting all of those numbers for the number of games played.

I'm going to use X2 to mean the X value for two team games, X3 for three team games in the following formula, which is the weighting formula:
[(X2*N2)+(X3*N3)]/(N2+N3)
In this example, that's [(1*20)+(1.5*30)]/(20+30) = 1.3

In this example, the person wins 130% of the games they're expected to win.
Adjusted winning number in profiles: 12/17/2011 20:02:47


Matma Rex 
Level 12
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Let me remind everyone about this: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=792 - crafty's spreadsheet uses the same method as yours, Tick.
Adjusted winning number in profiles: 12/18/2011 18:02:11


Tick 
Level 56
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Thanks - I wasn't aware of it. I'll vote on his user voice suggestion.

Crafty quit, though, right?
Adjusted winning number in profiles: 12/18/2011 19:24:29


Perrin3088 
Level 44
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crafty has been inactive for close to 3 months..
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