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I love chances: 10/22/2011 00:12:25

CyanHunter
Level 26
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In one of the multi-day game (http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer.aspx?GameID=1563379) started yesterday, I have the following scenario:

Turn 1:
5 v 2 (attacking), killed 1.
4 v 2 (attacking), killed 1.
OH REALLY? that chance of happening is <1%

then my one of my ally achieved this:
5 v 2 (attacking), win and have no casualty (~9%)
then next round he did:
3 v 2 (attacking) winning twice, allow him to complete a good bonus. (~9%)
then next round:
1 v 1 (attacking) win. (~18%)

Odds of these events happening consecutively: 0.15%

Okay I admit, chances of what he did wasn't as low as mine, individually, but they all happened in consecutive turns allowing him to get a huge whoopy bonus in 2nd turn :D
Not the mention he had a really good starting position. Damn I am jealous
I love chances: 10/22/2011 00:52:41

Richard Sharpe
Level 59
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5 v 2 killing 1 = 15.36%
4 v 2 killing 1 = 7.68%

Combined = 1.18%

5 v 2 win w/o loss = 91.3% * 23.0% = 21%
3 v 2 = 65% (times 2?) = 42.3%
1 v 1 = 60% * 30% = 18%

Combined 1.6%

Unlikely individually but far from obscene. As the wiki points out, we only notice these circumstances when they work against us... never when it works for us.
I love chances: 10/22/2011 17:17:57

Moros
Level 50
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Muhahahaha!!! (I was that other ally!)
Btw does anyone know a good way to make a chance calculator in excel, or, even better, a calculator already somewhere on the internet?
I love chances: 10/22/2011 22:47:40

Richard Sharpe
Level 59
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Define chance calculator...

Do you want something to figure the odds of winning an attack? Or something else?
I love chances: 10/23/2011 10:58:13

Matma Rex
Level 12
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There's the Analyze tool, built-in in Warlight?

http://wiki.warlight.net/index.php/Analyze_Graphs
I love chances: 10/23/2011 11:27:52

Moros
Level 50
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Just a calculator where you can input the number of attacking armies, the defending armies, and the luck, and it tells you how big the chance is you'll lose x armies, and that the defender loses y armies, and all that stuff
I love chances: 10/23/2011 13:55:36

CyanHunter
Level 26
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You can see that in Analyze tool when you attack. 1st graph is the chance of totally eliminating defending army (and thus "gain the territory") and second graph shows likely amount of troops you kill..

and btw it was in 75% luck (default
I love chances: 10/23/2011 16:26:44

Moros
Level 50
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I know the analyze tool... Gosh, I'm not THAT noobish! I just wanted to know if there is a way to get that same tool, but then with fictional amounts of armies, so you can think a few steps ahead...
I love chances: 10/23/2011 17:44:45

Matma Rex
Level 12
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You can input fictional numbers of defender armies in the analyze tool ;)
I love chances: 10/23/2011 18:08:27

Moros
Level 50
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@matma
but not the attackers
I love chances: 10/23/2011 18:09:03

Moros
Level 50
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And Sharpe, how did you get those numbers so exact? these dont show in the analyze tool!
I love chances: 10/23/2011 22:13:09

Richard Sharpe
Level 59
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Moros,

Used an online binomial distribution calculator. Thus my asking to define your chance calculator.

The one I used can determine the attack and defense probabilities (as seen above) and from that the probabilities of certain strings of attacks occurring. It does not however factor luck into the equation, just the straight odds of each result occurring. Given the right equations an understanding I could see an Excel sheet easily handling it though.

http://stattrek.com/tables/binomial.aspx
I love chances: 10/24/2011 18:25:18

Moros
Level 50
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I meant the numbers you said first:
"5 v 2 killing 1 = 15.36%
4 v 2 killing 1 = 7.68%"
How do you get those numbers from the calculator? Where to insert what?
I love chances: 10/24/2011 18:50:26

Richard Sharpe
Level 59
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Moros,

First off I just realized I swapped the numbers. The 15.36% goes with 4v2 and the 7.68% goes with 5v2 (which makes sense obviously)

This may have been what confused you with the calculator but if not, here is how I did it...

Probability of success on single trial = .6 (60% Offense)
Number of trials = 5 or 4 depending on scenario
Number of successes = 1 (only killed 1 unit)

Then the results give the following probabilities (for 4v2):

Killing exactly 1 = 15.36
Killing less than 1 (0!) = 2.56%
Killing no more than 1 = 17.92 (the sum of the above numbers)
Killing more than 1 = 82.08% (1-17.92%)
Killing at least 1 = 97.44% (1-2.56%)

Same approach can be done for probability of defensive outcomes using .7 in the first field and number of defenders in the second.

Again, this is just giving raw probabilities and does nothing for luck.
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