Noob, so I'm watching the best to learn, but I'd like to hear what the pros think. In the game posted below, it seems ACL should have attacked Nigeria with 90.https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=10673217
The worst-case scenario for ACL is that Buns attacks to the north and gets to Europe in two turns. There is nothing he can do to stop this, even maxing his deployment in Spain for two turns, having played his blockade (strangely?) in turn 3. But, at best, Buns is five turns from cracking ACL's next bonus, which, notably, they both know from the early turns. Perhaps this is why Buns makes the (defensive?) move that he does in turn 12. More on that below.
ACL also has first order and an Order Priority Card. ACL can also see that Buns is not in Africa and that his best/only chance to crack a bonus is in South America, where he knows Buns is. Further, with luck, he could crack two of Buns' bonuses within a crucial four turns. So if he attacks Nigeria with 90, his next-to-worst outcome is that Buns deploys 35 to Nigeria, then attacks him with 50 from behind, leaving him with 35, but he could not be stopped from taking Brazil in turn 13 (I think, since I am not sure about the reinforcements, but will analyze that next). His worst outcome would be if Buns had stacked 35 preemptively in Brazil and attacked Nigeria with 50, leaving ACL unable to take Brazil next turn, or, at least not definitely.
As it turned out, Buns ordered the best possible outcome for this hypothetical scenario. ACL would have been left with 48 units in Nigeria, and could not be stopped from taking Brazil. Too, he now has a weakened army behind him, and Buns is still two turns from Europe. So who made the mistake, if any? Or both?
I know both players are engaged in double-, triple-, and quadruple-think. Also, they both know the game and each other much better than I do. I have tried not to use any benefit of hindsight, as ACL could make a reasonable guess at Buns' resources.
I definitely learned one thing from this game. I have been watching these high-level games and wondering, "How the hell do these wizards know to surrender so quickly?" Then, on a whim, I looked at the chat... Lord.