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The perfect start...: 9/6/2013 05:27:39


Causation
Level 51
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...unfortunately it was for my opponent.

http://warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=4784327

No bonuses, no base income, 1 army per territory, 2 army neutrals, 75% luck

Here's how it went for him:

Turn 1: 5v2, 4 armies remain
Turn 2: 5v2, 4 armies remain
Turn 3: 3v2, 2 armies remain ; 3v2, 2 armies remain
Turn 4: 4v2, 3 armies remain ; 3v2, 2 armies remain
Turn 5: 7v6, 3 armies lost, 4 killed (not so perfect, but luck still on his side)
3v2, finally a failed attack, NO armies lost

Go ahead, create a game with this template, see if you can match his 7 territories after turn 4. Good luck!
The perfect start...: 9/6/2013 05:39:17

Seahawks 
Level 51
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moral of the story... DONT USE 75 PERCENT LUCK
The perfect start...: 9/6/2013 05:53:58


Causation
Level 51
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If two consenting adults choose to engage in a 75% luck encounter, who are you to judge them?

The point of the post was simply to feature his impressive streak of good fortune and challenge others to reproduce it, primarily for amusement.
The perfect start...: 9/6/2013 06:06:56


Wenyun 
Level 59
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Ummm... (This post is mainly countering Seahawks, though these calculations for the most part also apply to 75% luck)

Turn 1: 5v2, 4 armies remain
Turn 2: 5v2, 4 armies remain

Completely possible on 16%, even moreso considering the offense part is secured, so it's just a matter of defense killing 1, which is about a 60% chance on 16% luck each.

Turn 3: 3v2, 2 armies remain ; 3v2, 2 armies remain
Turn 4: 4v2, 3 armies remain ; 3v2, 2 armies remain

Also all possible on 16% luck; 3 3v2's is about 50% on 16% luck.

Turn 5: 7v6, 3 armies lost, 4 killed (not so perfect, but luck still on his side)
Possible on 16% luck also...

7 kills 4 on offense: 7*60% = 4.2 armies on average.
6 kills 3 on defense: 6*70% = 4.2*84% = 3.582 armies at minimum, round down. Possible though not likely.

3v2, finally a failed attack, NO armies lost
Finally, something NOT possible on 16% luck... and it's the one that fails.

moral of the story... 75% luck is bad, but usually it's bad when it makes stuff fail.

[By the way with the exception of the 6 killing 3 and the failed attack all of these will happen under 0% SR]

Edited 9/6/2013 06:10:26
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