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Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 13:37:08

Qi 
Level 55
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Board #1 https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=9312042

What are the best picks in this game? If both players make those same picks, are the picks still good?

In the game's chat, we talk about the board.

Also, does anyone want to make a custom distribution of this board and test out some of the ideas with us?
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 14:23:21


szeweningen 
Level 60
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I'd probably pick any of the following some % of the time:
a)1/2 ca/sa 3/4 scan/west russia 5/6 india/afghanistan
b)1/2/3 ca/sa/ant 4/5/6 west russia/scan/caucasus
c)1/2/3 ca/ant/southeast asia 4/5/6 west russia/scan/caucasus

I don't see any way in which ca does not give you some sort of an advantage, ecept for strategy c in which you hope to get a counter for 6th pick. Still it's not ideal, because majority of the time you'll just end up in a disadvantage having split scan/west russia but you can get some counterplay, mostly through sacrificing russia to get 11/9 income advantage around sa. Against a good player in a tournament i'd probably be inclined to play b, but all of those strategies seem viable to me.
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 14:32:12


Latnox 
Level 60
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#1 East china, #2, SEA, #3-#6 - SA, CA, Ant, Australia.

you can actually get SEA in turn 2 and China in turn 3. After that, you have safe income with possibility to counter Russia, and 1 pick in America area.
Only flaw in the plan is loosing SEA. But that gives you at least surprise factor from China

other option using the same trick:

#1 - Scan, #2 - Greenland, #3-#6 - SA, CA, Ant, Australia.

Edited 8/21/2015 14:37:00
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 14:56:51


szeweningen 
Level 60
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I doubt you can play that since it puts you at a disadvantage most of the time, you'll have slower expansion and it is unlikely you can finish antarctica ever. With your strategy you assume opponent won't counter antarctica at a precise moment, but if I get ca/sa/scan or ca/sa/russia I can safely assume you either have sea/china/ant or a blind counter in caucasus. Now that I think about it maybe I'd switch around the order of scan/west russia in some of the picks i posted. Same with 2nd strategy, you'll end up 10vs12 income never finishing ant.
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 15:06:28


Strategos
Level 54
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Anyone want to make a custom distribution of this board? Player A has to pick CA/SA 1/2 (and 3-6 are up to him), and Player B cannot pick CA or SA at all.

I want to see what can beat CA/SA 1/2 without pick lottery influencing the game.

(Why can't full members simply click a button in a game's settings that automatically recreates the same exact board, so we can save the board itself as a template?)

Edited 8/21/2015 15:10:47
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:02:40


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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Youre saying that this game is decidede on pick lottery because you have to pick CA,SA and then whoever gets CA wins because it dominates SA in every eventuality? CA is a big advantage but the most obvious way CA isnt dominant is if you complete SA first, then its actually better than CA because it gives more income. pick CA/SA/russia/scand/caucasus and i cant be bothered to think of a sixth. If you get 2nd pick and end up with SA russia and caucasus then let yourself get eliminated in russia, and take SA in 2 turns and be ahead by at least 1 income, probably more. then you can counter from caucasus (obviously).

Do not under any circumstances pick europe >.>

Edited 8/21/2015 16:11:07
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:10:03


Strategos
Level 54
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I want to avoid a pick lottery and make winning picks. Two goals.

First goal is achieved when CA/SA is not picked at all. That avoids a pick lottery for picks 1-2. A later pick lottery (for 3-6) is less consequential.

The question is about the second goal: How can "non-CA/SA" beat "CA/SA"?

Latnox offered "non-CA/SA" picks. Sze did not. piggy did not. My premise is that the vast majority of top players will pick CA/SA or at least CA as their top picks. What if I don't want to play that game? How can I play this board against a top player with "non-CA/SA" picks and win?

"Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?"

Edited 8/21/2015 16:12:20
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:11:57


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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You cant. you have to pick ca/sa to be competative. do you not like that?
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:16:16

Sabali
Level 56
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1 Ant 2 SEA 3 Middle East 4/5/6 scand/WR/Cauc

Would bordering SA with 11v9 income turn 2 be enough to win?

Edited 8/21/2015 16:39:08
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:20:43


Strategos
Level 54
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Pig, how do you know? In the game's chat I suggested

1 India
2 Australia
3-4 Scandinavia/Russia
5 Caucasus
6 Somewhere in Anto-Afro-America

(I later changed that to a 50-50 coin flip for CA as the 1, followed by 2 India, 3 Aust, 45 Scand/Russ, 6 Cauc. But for the theoretical purposes of this thread, to avoid pick lottery altogether picks 1-2, we'll use the above picks minus CA.)

Are Latnox's "non-CA/SA" picks doomed no matter what against another top player? Are mine?

It seems top players more or less make similar picks (and sometimes the exact same picks) for certain boards. Are our strategic options really that limited?

Edited 8/21/2015 16:24:21
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:26:32


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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Ok i think i have something for you. Lets say you dont pick sa,ca and the other guy gets them and omg hes over the moon, stupid qi must have picked ant. turn 3 or 4 siple is getting a fat stack right in its face. Sze agrees. So what if you pick aus? after his big stack finds noone in ant he will obviously go on to take it. perhaps going into africa if youre lucky. If you were competent enough to guess what turn he takes scott you could take back enough of an advantage to make up for losing sa,ca. what do you think?

I imagine youd put aus with scand west russia which runs into its own problems. for instance the picks sepiroth made would totally trash you.

Widzisz plays this kind of weird shit so often that its tanked his ladder rating. hes developed an aversion to making good picks ill try and get his opinion.

"Would bordering SA with 11v9 income turn 2 be enough to win?" no, not if the guy with 9 also has scand. he will take scand turn 3 and then slowly take SA. Its pretty close but id prefer SA/CA.

Latnoxs picks are not doomed but id certainly rather play against them than with them. whoever is in SA is going to go into ant, surely you agree?

I think your picks are going to leave you with contact in scand/russia and the otehr guy with a much faster first bonus because its been double picked. I dont really have the language to explain easily but basically youre likely to get eliminated in russia or scand whichever one you get while youre trying to take australia.

Edited 8/21/2015 16:36:41
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/21/2015 16:34:24

Nauzhror 
Level 56
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Amusingly widzisz is what comes to mind to me when I see this map and the question Gui poses.

https://www.warlight.net/MultiPlayer?GameID=6381456

Do something like that.

This board lacks a ftb, but it still might work to use Scandi and West Russia with North Africa. Especially if the player in SA/CA plays as if you're in antarctica and is caught flat-footed.
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/22/2015 10:55:07


[WM] Gnuffone 
Level 60
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i think best picks are 1 CA 2/3 scan combo, 4 ant 5 SEA 6 SA

pick 1/2 CA SA is very bad in this scenario

Edited 8/22/2015 10:55:44
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/22/2015 11:04:54

Qi 
Level 55
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If both players pick CA/SA as their 1/2 picks, I agree that it is bad. If one player gets both, it is powerful.

Without picking CA or SA, how do you beat a top player who has CA and SA, Gnuff?
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/22/2015 11:18:05


[WM] Gnuffone 
Level 60
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1/2 scan combo is strong as well, with 3 ant 4 ca 5 SA 6 SEA
Likely i am gonna have scan and ant, gonna 11 income in 2 turns. He shouldn't be able to stop be to get the ant. If he have SEA, we are maybe both 11 income and who get 1st move to take Argentina will win probably (i assume both will attack it full 1st move)

If he have another bonus, i will jump in SA before him. I should win as well.

If i fail my 11 income, gg wp.

Edited 8/22/2015 11:19:28
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/22/2015 11:42:13


Sephiroth 
Level 60
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~67% chance for that 11 income/2 turns - i thought about it too, but it relies on luck way too much

Not to mention that opponent could easily try to counter ant turn 2 while taking CA

Edited 8/22/2015 11:49:03
Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/22/2015 11:50:23


professor dead piggy 
Level 59
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Win on picks / Avoid a pick lottery / How?: 8/23/2015 02:59:46


ps 
Level 60
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not much to add to what's already been said.
good thread.
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