Your opponents 76% winrate is pure autogames and he's actually terrible?
Wrong analysis? Seems accurate enough. Turn 1 hitting Norway is dumb. Turn 3 I'd have finished Scandi since rest of bonus was already finished. Even if can't keep the bonus it'd pay for itself back the very next turn.
Turn 4 he shows basic understanding regarding the advantages of double or triple borders, but not the understanding that they are of less value when brawling with low income (since the armies lost on neutrals matter more). Same idea turn 6. Game's over by then.
Game was his to win for several turns, but he just never managed to attack at the right time to break West Russia.
@Purple: Why is turn 1 hitting Norway dumb? In the case that Piggy is working on West Russia like in this game it's the best move available. Imagine he actually got a bonus before Piggy and was a decent player, he wins this game 90% of the time from that point on. It's bad when the opponent hits you with full income turn 1 into Norway, but the chances of that are lower in this distribution.
As for an analysis, it looks like this player is used to long, messy games. He wants as many borders on you, and strikes only when he has no other option left. Against a top player, this is inefficient and sloppy play. Against a noob, this probably works a lot better as it presents more options for the noob to think about. He's basically opening up the other player to make mistakes. If you don't make any mistakes, he loses. If you make a noob move, he wins. That's why he plays like that. He's used to playing noobs who will eventually make a noob move, then he'll attack.