I like option 4, but I wouldn't neccessarily attack Brazil...

Swapping a 3 bonus for a 5 isn't too bad...
And if we get a decent blockade in South Pole he has his stack of armies down there that can't do anything except move back up through Africa, either taking 5 turns to get somewhere useful or expended getting the 3-bonus of South Africa...

Our armies in South America no longer need to protect the Antarctica bonus, so they could all move up to Colombia (probably first move) just to keep things fresh :p

If he doesn't put lots into Brazil then we're almost guaranteed to take it from him next turn if we invest heavily there, then we have a stack next to his West Africa bonus...

Still have options for expansion into Australia, and Canada and Caucasus are there as well...

I think we should take Greenland this turn and put the remainder into Argentina.

I would would first capture Greenland, then move the other armies up there closer to Canada in a better position and then attack Columbia with 2 and Brazil with 20.

Blockading Antarctica seems unneccessary this turn.

@Xyphistor, Imp doesn't have West Africa, he has East Afica.

I haven't followed this from the beginning, so bear with me when I miss something :-)

Putting much effort into holding Antarctica seems like a bad idea, since it means basically putting everything there and thus halt expansion in Greenland. So I wouldn't recommend that. And without Antarctica to protect, I think those 19 in Argentina have to move where they can do more damage. So far so good. So screw Antarctica, we can block it later if we want.
Thing is, he might anticipate that if he's good. So he probably won't put too much effort into breaking Antarctica, but instead he could a) reinforce Brazil, or b) start expanding into Western U.S. Why Western U.S.? because he is undisturbed there, whereas Caucasus is always threatend by us from the other side (assuming he started somewhere in Asia as well? As I said, I haven't followed that closely).

I see 2 options:
a) Attack Colombia with 18; deploy 2 to Itseequowhatever and attack Iceland with 4; deploy 9 to Kanterlussuaq and attack Quanaaq with 7, Nuuk with 4); deploy 4 to Ufa and explore Eastern Khazakstan. Lose Antarctica, but gain Greenland.
or
b) Put everything to Argentina and take Brazil. Lose Antarctica, but threaten Africa next turn.

I have never played with him so I don't know his style, but what are the chances that he predicts that we decide that since we can't defend antarctica if he maximally reinforces so that we don't put anything there. He can then get away without putting anything there and still break the bonus. I might do that if I knew I was slightly behind and wanted to be a little risky.

Yes, that's a valid concern. And then Brazil becomes the most important position on the board.

I take it he received 12 armies last turn and has a reinforcement card left, so that makes a total of 24 he can gather in Brazil OR 27 in South Africa.

Worst cases:
We have 19+15=34, that's 33 to attack vs. 24 in Brazil (chance of taking the territory: 0%).
Of course, if he only put 10 to Brazil, we had a 99% of winning, but heknows that too ... so he WILL put more than 10 there. He can afford NOT to attack in Antarctica for one more turn, because 15vs10 we only have a 32% of beating him there, but he cannot afford to lose Brazil.
OR
We try to defend Antarctica with 16 vs. 26 (chance of that: 54%, not very promising either ...)
OR
We take Greenland with 7/4/4 armies (chance of all 3 attacks being successful: 72%)

I predict he puts 2-3 to SA and the rest to Brazil.

"The nightmare scenario for your move is that he puts enough in Brazil that he can wipe us out of South America when we attack and clang. Not likely, but possible, and until last turn, you seemed to think South America was hugely important, so I'm surprised you'd risk it."

That would be a disaster. But it strikes me as numerically nearly impossible (we have 22 -- he has a max of 24 with 100% deployed to Brazil). But I suppose we could limp out of Argentina with a couple of late 3 attacks instead of going all out with 21. If we have the DO card then I still like the all out 21 attack. He's extremely unlikley to load all 17 into Brazil and sit there. If he goes with a heavy deployment to Brazil he'll attack us -- and we can get the benefit of last attack with the card.

I think a delayed attack into Brazil with 21 is a smart play, especially if we plan to blockade the spot immediately south of it in Antartica next turn. If there's no DO and people think Imp is going to try a delayed counterpunch with nearly all his armies, then we can use small attacks, but I really think that risk is remote.

Taking Greenland and keeping the income advantage is essential.

I checked no DO card -- so I'll throw out both options (strong into Brazil on 7th move or weak into Columbia and Brazil as 6th and 7th orders):

7 Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Very Safely try to take more control of South America.

-Deploy 5 to Kangerlussuaq, 6 to Itseqqortoormiit, 4 to Argentina. Transfer 1 from Siple to Argentina. Attack Qaanaaq with 7. Attack Nuuk with 4. Attack Iceland with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Columbia with 3. Attack Brazil with 3.

8 Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Aggressively take more control of South America.

-Deploy 5 to Kangerlussuaq, 6 to Itseqqortoormiit, 3 to Argentina and 1 to Siple. Transfer 1 from Siple to Argentina. Attack Qaanaaq with 7. Attack Nuuk with 4. Attack Iceland with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Brazil with 21.

The only reason I have two attacks of 3 instead of just going at Columbia is that I think it's likely that Imp slides his armies voer to Columbia 1st mvoe and comes hard from South Africa. I want to get either Columbia or Brazil so we have a platform to fight for SA next turn.

Or he stacks up in Brazil, and holds all of the choke points into Africa

All possible choices involve attacking Brazil with 15-24 armies. I am missing the choice where Brazil won't be attacked at all. Could you please add:

9 - Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Shift presence in South America towards Central America. Explore Caucasus.

Deploy 10 to Kangerlussuaq, 2 to Itseqqortoormiit, 3 to Ufa. Attack Colombia with 18. Attack Iceland with 4. Attack Quanaaq with 8. Attack Nuuk with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Eastern Khazakstan with 3.

and

10 - Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Careful expansion in South America. Explore Caucasus.

Deploy 10 to Kangerlussuaq, 2 to Itseqqortoormiit, 3 to Ufa. Attack Iceland with 4. Attack Quanaaq with 8. Attack Nuuk with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Eastern Khazakstan with 3. Attack Colombia with 3.

Note:
I really think Quanaaq needs to be attacked with 8. If we attack with 7, chances of taking Greenland this turn will be merely 72%; with 8 it is a 84% chance.

Forget that last part, I had the wrong settings when testing percentages, didn't realize it was less luck involved. 7 will be fine, so one can be switched back to the Eastern Khazakstan attack.

Diabolicus -

Squatting in Argentina is fine (although it's not much different than #7 which has two di Minimus attacks of 3 from Argentina - not an attack with 15-24). Do you really feel another option without the late attacks with 3 is warranted?

Why do you want to explore Causacus? Imp has deployed 100% every turn in SA or South Africa for the last 6 turns. He's not in Causacus. That's a waste of armies better used in Greenland, Antartica or Argentina. Imp is especially unlikely to put armies into expanding in Causacus this turn.

Check your math on the 72% and 84%. 7 kills 4.2 and we have 16% luck (I think). I get odds of missing with a 7 attack as .351(odds there's a remainder below 4) x .472 (odds of failing the remainder roll) or .165 (so we make it 84.5% of the time). The odds of missing with 8 are zero.

So we mitigate a 15.5% chance of losing 5 by allocated 1 additional army. Makes sense to me. Especially if all we'd do with that army is sit in Argentina with it.

Revised to obviate risk of failed 7x4 attack:

7 Goal: Take the Greenland bonus. Very Safely try to take more control of South America.
-Deploy 5 to Kangerlussuaq, 7 to Itseqqortoormiit, 3 to Argentina and 1 to Siple. Transfer 1 from Siple to Argentina. Attack Qaanaaq with 8. Attack Nuuk with 4. Attack Iceland with 4. Transfer 1 to Kangerlussuaq. Transfer 2 to Danmark Havn. Attack Columbia with 3. Attack Brazil with 3.

I didn't like the old plan of letting Impaller keep East Africa and take South Africa, so you can imagine my feelings about this new plan, which appears to be to totally concede Antarctica AND both of the choke points into Africa just so we can get Greenland one turn earlier.

Troll, please add this option:

Deploy one in each of the Greenland 2s
Deploy 13 to Argentina.
Attack 3 on 2 into each of the Greenlands.
Move the other armies up into Greenland.
Attack 2 on 1 north into South America.
Send the rest into Brazil.

Option 3 is close, but not aggressive enough with Brazil for my tastes.

Fred -- How about a little consistency. It's like you have multiple personalities or something.

You suggested two alternative options -- both of them involved blockading in Antartica. Now you are up in arms about "totally conced[ing] Antarctica." That's your plan dude!

Your other points are variations on the same theme "conceding both choke points into Africa" and "letting him keep East Africa and take South Africa". This all boils down to attacking Brazil -- that's it. Attacking Brazil doesn't really solve those things, but it's your principal plan in all three of your proposed options.

I understand that attacking Brazil with a stack is very likely to result in taking it. You might even get a net gain on the attack (assuming Imp doesn't slide over and give the spot up).

The down side is you give up +5 income from greenland next turn and Imp starts outearning us.

We are 100% assured of the +5 income if we take Greenland (zero risk). We could have no net gain taking Brazil.

There are other possible bad outcomes with the attack on Brazil beyond foregoing the +5. Imp put's all his income there and we bounce, potentially missing the card piece if the 3x2 attacks fail in greenland. Imp slides to Columbia and does a delayed attack into Argentina -- then next turn we're stuck blockading on the East side of Antartica and Imp is able to bring his stack in Antartica over to South America.

As with last turn - you may guess right and Imp leaves just the right number in Brazil for you to max the net gain and you win your 3x2s and you pick up Columbia with a 2x1. But I prefer not to rely on guessing right unless I have no choice.

There's zero guess work in my proposed #7. Whatever Imp does it yields an improved position next turn. Is it better than if I accurately guess his moves and play a counter -- of course not. But I don't think that's the best way to play WL.

Even if you guess right this turn -- it woudl not shake my view that the right move is to not rely on guessing right, unless you have no choice.

Why don't we deploy 4 to Itseqqortoormiit Deploy 4 to Kangerlussuaq and Attack Quaanq with that force. While Attacking the other two Territorys in Greenland with 3 each from Itseqqortoormiit. While we deploy the rest of our income to Scott and Blockade it as it makes no ense to try and keep Ant resulting in a loss of our Troops. With the 5 we earn in Greenland we can easily take Brazil NEXT TURN.

Or would it make sense to just deploy however much we have left defending from Imp. Because he wont have enough Income to attack us in Antarctica and Defend Brazil. So if We add 15 Maybe in Antarctica in the Territory that's under treat and the rest of income in Brazil and attack him with everything we got in Argentina to Brazil we May hold Antarctica, Just About, and/or Get our Brazil Choke Point. I'm new to writing down what i think and I'm finding it difficult :P Maybe Duke can decipher what i am getting at.

Okay I am going to try and do this. (Presuming our income is 21)
Deploy 15 to Noval.... In Antartica
Deploy 6 To Argentina
Attack Brazil from Argentina with everything.
Transfer the troops in Scan to Greenland.
And Transfer Troops from Eastern Most Greenland to Further in Greenland.

I am quite Bad at getting this into words.

I will add your proposed options in the next couple of days. I am currently on vacation until June 20th, so this voting period is longer than normal.

For clarification, 7v4 has a 98% chance of success; you may adjust your proposals accordingly.