Duke - I didn't say that "my goal" was to defend Argentina. I said the goal of option 5 was to defend Argentina, while I explained why it was my favorite of the options that had bee posted up to that point. It seems like you totally misread that post, because the first three paragraphs, including the thing about having a card next turn, were all about option 5. The rest was about option 8.
I know you expect him to do the same thing this turn. I disagree. This turn is different from other turns because we have good reason to believe that Impaller has shown us his entire income of 12 each turn, and we showed him a 14 income last turn. If he hasn't been hiding income, then it would be very difficult for him to have a second card on turn 9. I asked earlier in the thread, if he's not in India/E Africa or India/Indonesia, then where is he? Walk me through it. Do you think he's in Canada? East Russia? Help me out here.
Again, if he has more than 12 income, shouldn't we have seen the results of his secret expansion somewhere by now? If he doesn't, then do you think he'd make a first turn attack with 19 against our 6 in Argentina, knowing that we have at least 14 income and a card, and put all of it in Argentina last turn? Tell me what you think his move is going to be.
As a reminder of the history:
Turn 1: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1356 - he went for Central America and missed
Turn 2: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1366 - he takes Central America, but we immediately break it. He uses 3 or 4 other armies somewhere else.
Turn 3: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1379 - he concedes Central America and blockades Baja.
Turn 4: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1398 - he deploys 8. We have 12 income but deploy 8 that he can see.
Turn 5: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1436 - he deploys 17, showing that he'd gotten another bonus, and uses his card. We deploy 17 that he can see.
Turn 6: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1449 - he deploys 12, and does not attack anywhere that we can see. We deploy 12 that he can see.
Turn 7: http://warlight.net/Forum/Thread.aspx?ThreadID=1493 - he deploys 12, and fails to take Argentina. We deploy 14 that he can see.
So it's pretty likely that he's still sitting on exactly 12 income. I know you're very afraid of him getting South America. But it would be almost impossible for him to submit a move that would take South America this turn without reading this thread. He'd have to attack Argentina with almost everything on his first move, but also put enough armies in Brazil to attack on his second move, and also leave enough armies in place to stop the 2 on 1 with our last move. It's possible, but it would be such a disastrous strategy against everything we've shown him so far that I would have to assume he was reading along.
This has basically been Duke vs Impaller all game, though, so if you want to keep that going, I'll withdraw the option I proposed so we can see how your move would work instead. You've put more time into this game than anyone, so you may as well see it through. I'm sorry you don't like the move I suggested.