Disagree.. If I get one from my 1/2 and one from my 3/4 and miss out on SEA, I'm better placed with my counter in Xinjiang.
If I get one from my 1/2 and both from my 3/4 I'm still placed well, since I have a combo(WR) which I can complete in 2 turns, whereas SEA can only be taken in 3 turns. Is there any other combination I'm missing out on here?
Half the time with your picks vs Szew's you will get SA + West Russia + Scan vs CA + SEA + Greenland (case 1) other half it will be CA + Scan + Xinjiang vs SA + West Russia + SEA (case 2).
Case 1: You are able to take West Russia in 2 turns while he takes SA in 2 turns as long as he doesn't get too unlucky (not sure about the exact luck on taking a 4 bonus from 1 start in 2 turns) - you probably have the better positioning because of svalbard, you take it you will get scan in 2 turns (conservatively) and if he takes sea it will be hard for him to break. So if the picks are like this, overall I would say win for you.
Case 2: The only chance you have of taking a bonus is CA and that only works if he takes SA in the first 2 turns instead of trying to stop you. Scan is too easily counterable and visible from West Russia, and West China is out of the question. The only options for you are to go for elimination in West Russia or to take CA - I'm sure szew would do something that makes it nearly 100% win no matter what you do, although I can't at the moment, as he definitely has better positioning. Overall I think with your 2 picks you may have a slight advantage overall.
However when I was comparing your picks and saying I preferred Szew's that is because most of the people here said that they would pick SA/CA as their 1,2 or maybe Aus combo (which is probably worse but still an option) and his safe pick 3 meant that he would have 1 border in America, 1 safe pick in SEA first and then hopefully for him 1 pick around Scan next to 2 of their picks, giving him the advantage (in my opinion) over yours where you could end up with a double pick in Scan vs 1 in europe for instance, a border in america and they have a safe one in asia or oceania or africa.
And this is why I get killed ..... why are my would be picks so awful ! ! !
1 North Africa
2 West Africa
3 East Africa
4 5 6 any order SA Scan SEA
Cluster yes but two borders to defend bonuses and plow through SA CA would be my approach
Having 3 in Africa is very inefficient, because even though as you said you have less borders, if they picked the first turn bonus you are in a much worse position - however the only good thing about your picks is that if they went SA / CA combo, and a counter in Scan, they could waste a lot of troops trying to find you around Scan, and if you take Brazil with 6 the turn they plan on finishing SA you will definitely be in the better position. However, I definitely do not suggest for going for a picking strategy which relies on the other player wasting armies because your picks are so unorthodox, much safer to go for better bonuses (income/territory).
@Chris: only because i picked carelessly because i expected the average 1v1 auto-game :P SA is obviously better than CA there
Seph this is why I suggest you always have a sneaky peek of the other person's profile before you start a game, when I saw you were an oldie from 2012, you 2v2 in the ladder with Bjarke and your win percentages are 73, 69, 82 I needed to play risky :D