Since my wall of text in the previous post is probably pretty repulsive, I have just created a custom scenario in order to show how the Israel scenario could have played out.
https://www.warzone.com/MultiPlayer?GameID=23889038

As you can see, there was no room for any bad luck which is quite unlikely to happen. This scenario also doesn't really fit with Rufus not showing 4 income last turn.

Edited 9/10/2020 16:34:28

thanks norman, pretty helpful

seems like he would need pretty good luck to go for Israel Turn 4

Don't see why he'd be doing anything but going through China. Everything else is just horribly slow and inefficient.
Then again, I really didn't see things playing out as they did last turn, so...

I said that Rufus probably went through the south part of China however thinking about it, I believe that the chances are bigger that he is coming from the north. Coming from the south is pretty bad for him if we are in Central Russia instead of Caucasus. Also I believe that Central Russia was our more obvious expansion choice, if we weren't so "paranoid" about the Middle East.

What I don't like about this turn is that now there are order delay cards in play. Without the cards we should be able to easily outdelay Rufus and I don't like wasting a card. Without calculating anything, I'd say we deploy full in South America, play the order delay card, outdelay him and then hit him everywhere where we see him. Something like 4 armies Central America, 2 or 3 armies Colombia and the rest to Brazil. If I was wrong and Rufus is coming from the south of China, he has to invest quite some armies to break the +4. Also no matter the direction, Rufus probably would prefer to show up with a stack

Edited 9/10/2020 18:56:07

outdelay him and then hit him everywhere where we see him.

This is usually good advice how to lose a game, we should have some idea what we actually want to achieve with our attacks, otherwise we will just have be vulnerable with our small attacks.

Rufus will beet the world

This is usually good advice how to lose a game, we should have some idea what we actually want to achieve with our attacks, otherwise we will just have be vulnerable with our small attacks.

@AI: I said I haven't calculated it through, not that I haven't put any thoughts into it:

- If Rufus hits us strong from Brazil, we just break Central America and our other orders don't get executed.
- If Rufus tries to outplay us by taking South America, he pretty much loses the game.
- If Rufus (for some reason) defends Central America, he will most likely attack us with 2 smaller stacks and lose the game.

Of course "lose the game" is a pretty absolute statement, however we could certainly bring Rufus to the edge of defeat.

If our small attacks succeed / partially succeed this puts pressure on Rufus next turn while releaving pressure from us. In total this is an enormous pressure swing. Right when Rufus want's to break us, he is risking getting beaten in South America. South America is a "pressure" region. We don't want to have an enormous amount of pressure there while simultaneously having Rufus show up at our doorstep from China.

The fact that Rufus is (most likely) moving towards us increases the chances that he will try for some fancy play in South America next turn.

Edited 9/10/2020 19:14:00

Late retake of South America or blockading Brazil + stack in China seem likelier to me than slamming us in Venezuela.

Late retake of South America or blockading Brazil + stack in China seem likelier to me than slamming us in Venezuela.

I haven't thought about the option of Rufus moving his stack to Africa and blockading Brazil. At first glance this option seems completely nonsense. At second glance that option still looks crazy but then again it could also turn out to be crazy smart instead of crazy stupid. Thinking about it, Rufus could even both try to take over South America while moving his main stack to Africa. However this might then again be just crazy stupid...

Anyhow, those options are just another reason to go berserk now and hit Rufus everywhere. I'm not asking anyone to vote for the "berserk" option, I'm only asking to get that voting option.

Edited 9/10/2020 20:27:52

I think we can probably think that Rufus will send most of his armies towards us in Asia/Iran - whereever he's moving towards us.

That's the winning play - break us in asia and then it should be gg. So, given that - blockading Brazil and taking West Africa with his stack in Brazil is a smart complementary play.

option 2

@Quicksilver: If Rufus is coming from the north part of China, he should be able to calculate quite easily by now that we took Caucasus. Because of the position of the +4, taking Central Russia would have costed us significantly less deployment. For this reason he should know that it takes him another turn before he can border our income. If Rufus determines that he won't border our income next turn, I doubt he will deploy too much in China.

Edited 9/10/2020 20:51:37

He probably should tho, because if we catch him before our border and he has no stack advantage, that sucks for him.

So, losing +3, sealing away Africa and gaining +4 next turn while blocking Brazil and a stack double bordering on opponents +5 bonus.

Call me insane, but that's a good play right there.

I haven't thought about the option of Rufus moving his stack to Africa and blockading Brazil. At first glance this option seems completely nonsense. At second glance that option still looks crazy but then again it could also turn out to be crazy smart instead of crazy stupid.

I don't really see a downside to it; would you expect your blockade not to work here? You'd give up an unsafe CA here for a safe WA/EA. Not only are you able to get another bonus, you secure EA with it too (especially if Rufus thinks we're in CR instead of Cauc).

So, losing +3, sealing away Africa and gaining +4 next turn while blocking Brazil and a stack double bordering on opponents +5 bonus.

Call me insane, but that's a good play right there.

It's not insane, we already yesterday found this to be our "main prediction" for the next turn. The question is, how much we can rely on it and if we have another way of playing that doesnt gamble on exactly this.

next thread should be Rufus vs The World Turn 5 Real-Time where you all experienced folks discuss what you would do on first glance

@Farah: As I said, at second glance that option looks "crazy smart".


The reason why I haven't seen the option of blockading Brazil was due to some "general patterns" in my mind. This would be a blockade to a bonus where Rufus has the advantage and is the guy who is putting on the pressure. Blockading Brazil immediately releases all pressure on us of Rufus taking over that bonus. I have seen quite some guys completely throwing games by such kind of blockades. However as I said, at second glance that option then again looks more like "crazy smart".

The question is, how much we can rely on it and if we have another way of playing that doesnt gamble on exactly this.

I wouldn't rely on this. It's an option however Rufus could also very well do something like taking over South America. Have I mentioned already that the "Berserk" works against both of those possible movesets from Rufus?

Edited 9/10/2020 21:21:37

I think Rufus taking over South America would lose him the game. I don't see how it's advantageous. Either he fails it and loses the game immediately, or he takes it and has to immediately defend the bonus next turn, costing him armies which could be spent on attacking.

I agree. Taking over South America is not a good try, because even if perfectly succeeding, I'm not convinced it is beneficial for him really.

@Norman, the risky thing about the berserk is to attack Brazil with half a stack, which is basically the worst possible outcome, because you kill your stack on armies that get blockaded afterwards. By the way, Rufus can pull off a nice Timi-blockade here.