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CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/7/2019 10:43:53

[WG] Reza
Level 60
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I agree with Xenophon
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/7/2019 13:10:29


Rikku
Level 61
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Stop bullying Crunks
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/8/2019 19:58:30


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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Last chance to get all your predictions in, analysis likely this weekend:
https://goo.gl/J2ftwS
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/14/2019 13:41:45


AI 
Level 63
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Do we have a result here?
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/15/2019 21:32:45


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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I got ill last weekend.
I'm working on it right now, expecting the final post tomorrow.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/16/2019 19:53:54


Severus Snape
Level 56
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A:

1/2 ONE!

With a strong roster built on addition of good players and existing consistent performers they are going to eyeing for the 1st place.

1/2/3 Lynx

I place them here, because of loss of AG, 90, ZBD, Quicksilver,Octane and Juan. The addition of Kicorse, krunx, Mostly Harmless are good, but just doesn't balance out. With Hades, Kurdistan and Turkish joining them, it will be a hit or miss chance.

3/4 Outlaws

With loss of Kezzo (who got almost all of his contested points) and Odin, they're in trouble of dominating tournaments. Edge, Krzysztof and aoc have to look for maximum points while platinum has to look to stop their booting issues. No doubt the roster has depth and lot of promising new players, but if you boot-its Plat's lecture time.

3/4/5 MH

With RNK gone and many of them in 3 slots, it is a big work for them to push towards the top. Last time they beat all the odds and secured 5th place in a division of heavy hitters, so I don't expect them to go any lower than that this time. If they don't face any booting issues, they surely look good for a surprise higher finish.

4/5/6 WG

Strengthened by additions of players from various clans overshadowing loss of almosttricky, WG if they play their cards well- can surely look for a top finish. With old and new members combined, they've good depth.

4/5/6 SNinja

With addition of Master Jaesar, Hergul and return of almosttricky they look good for Div.A. Last season they dominated div.B and if rakleader and almosttricky don't burn out playing 3 slots each, they will surprise everyone with an even higher finish.

5/6/7 Stats

I was about to say they can surprise everyone by beating all odds and retain their spot in A, but seeing Nauzhror booting in 2 games makes me to say its a tough road ahead for avoiding relegation. With the smallest roster, if hit by booting-it is going to be so hard even if others perform well.


B

1 GG

They relegate from A only to promote to A and with addition of new members, they look good for dominating the division.

2/3 Apps

If anyone can challenge GG for the first spot, it is Apprentice. They finished 2nd in Div.C last season and they're good enough to aim for a quick promotion to A.

2/3/4 101st

With the loss of Kicorse, krunx, mostly harmless and Cowboy, the influx of players from various clans (in short poached players :P ) tries to compensate the loss. They finished 1st in Div.C last season and with same momentum they are looking for earning the promotion spot.

3/4/5 FCC

With help of Xenophon, the clan has stabilised and with the poached/merged members of EU, they look good to become a stable clan. They've good depth,

5/6 NWO

The roster looks a lot different from last season, but few additions balances out the gap created by lost members. If they play seriously and with good enough motivation, they not only will remain in B, but will finish higher too.

5/6/7 VS

I place them here mainly because of lack of their best players in the roster itself. This seems like a lack of motivation and not that the members are bad.

4/5/6/7 CORP

I place them here because this is a wild card; knowing their past performance in Div.C and previous CL they may well relegate but with the addition of new members they can finish higher too. I know they had some boots last season and if they can avoid boots, they're all set for retaining their spot.

Q1

1/2 VIW

They don't have Blister and SoS, but they're favorites for promotion, because their leader is motivated and they've him in 2 slots.

1/2/3 Illuminati

They're the revived Illuminatis, steered by The Awesome Ottery Cat and Psykkoman. With Criba in 2 slots, they're sure to promote.

3/4 Harmony

No Tacky, Pichu, Nutella, Nomercy means they are not favorites to end up first; but with N and powerbalance, they've a good shot at promoting to C and having a good start to CL.

3/4/5 BIA

They've good player base and good experience. If they're motivated, they can secure themselves a top 3 spot.

3/4/5/6 Avengers

Siema is a boot risk and if he plays the games without booting, they have a chance at promotion.

6 VG

They're here, because they lack the depth.

7 Celtica

Forfeiting two tournaments right after the start is just bad. If anything, I would recommend atleast playing them.

Q2

1 Blitz

Power level over 9000.

Blitz is recruiting Master clan members. If Blitz continues to play next season, they will promote to A. By that time will they move to Masters to start a Master Clan is recruiting meme?

2/3 HAWKS

They're good and highly motivated. Word is they're already preparing for Div.C ;)

2/3 Wizards

We're an active clan, looking for active members. If you're interested in joining contact me.

4 LEA

They're here mainly because of lack of depth. They're good in gaining points, but lacks the members to aim for top.

5/6 Discovery

Under the guidance of the old timer-streamer Mr.Trolldemort, they look to aim for a good start to their CL profile.

5/6 USSR

Getting into CL, they're still moving towards a strategic plan in a slow pace. They've to stop looking for the extra points by having 2 members in a 1v1 tournament :P

7 Nuke Diplomacy

I place them here mainly because of assumption of all of them play only diplomacy.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/17/2019 05:19:38

FiveStarGeneral
Level 60
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1. ONE!-It's a been a long journey for ONE there and back again. Led by FrodoStarGeneral the Excellente and his weathered fellowship of lackeys (Beren "Lost a hand for cheating" Erchamion, Malakkan the Nice, Muli the Userscript, 89th the One With Less IQ than 90, Suschel the Celestial Starfarer, Adreso the Mellow, PJ the Somewhat Retired, ParDONE) plus some new fools of Tooks (Rheumkay, tornado, Milly), and with Masters out of the way, ONE's tricksy, hobbitsy ways will finally give them a chance to steal the One Ring back to the Shire from where they will lord over Middle-Earth like Frodo always intended to.

2. Lynx-Lynx's crazed, ill-fated steward, ZeroBlindDenethor, is now gone but so too are many of Lynx's mightiest. Storied players like Awesomeguy and 90 (Guardian of IQ) have all fallen in the search for the Ring, while others like Quicksilver were driven mad and wandered off into the wilderness babbling something about quickpoints. A new leader in the form of alexclusive has risen to restore Lynx to glory, and he will be aided by the promotion of krunx and especially kicorse and the return of old companion Kurdistan. Unfortunately, they will not be able to plug up all the chinks in the defenses and there are a fair number of weak points remaining in the Lynx lineup. All in all though, this is still a competitive squad whose goal no doubt is to capture the One Ring for themselves and use it to acquire Industrial Age technology like Gatling guns so they'll never have to worry about those pesky orcs again.

3. Outlaws-Grima Wormtongue's subversive whispers always seem to find their way into Plat's heart around the start of CL. Or perhaps he is actually Grima himself. In any case, Plat has been furiously training new recruits Terrence, stales, and bohun on the 2v2 and 3v3 ladders for the coming battle. With Bonsai and aoc on three slots and the dwindling squad of surviving veterans, Edge, Plat, and Krzystof, just meagerly covering the team games and 1v1s, there is no doubt that Outlaw's beleaguered lines are weaker than before and stretched thin. The loss of Plat's great steed, Kezzo the Goat, who carried him through CL10, and the absence of Odin and Njord perhaps harbinger Outlaw's darkest hour. Their greatest trials will be for Bonsai not to repeat last CL's debacle and in the 3v3 team games, but I believe the Horn of Plat Potatohand shall sound one last time and lead Outlaws sallying forth to a solid finish.

4. WG-Just like the Noldor (High Elves) whose own folly and ambition condemned them once they undertook the decision to cross into Middle-Earth, WG will find nothing but pain and tears unnumbered in Division A. However, the fruits of their efforts may not be completely doomed to spoil. While it looks like their success will rely very heavily on Super Smoove especially and Reza on 3 slots, their 1v1 lineup is looking decently competitive with the addition of an improved Guest and should be able to keep WG in the middle of the pack. If Super Smoove's teammates can pull their own weight then it may just be enough to drive them even higher, though I think this will be a challenge.

5. Sninjas-Fools just like their WG brethren, the Sindarin (Grey Elf) ninjas should've simply sailed into the West to frolick in everlasting bliss. Instead, they have come to Middle-Earth to learn the pain of 70 day vacations and trying to read Div A updates amidst the ethical debates and friendly banter between Outlaws and Lynx. Rakleader is Super Smoove's doppleganger here. Iirc, max is a fervent INSS player and almosttricky on 3 slots is solid. Being pretty ignorant, I really have no clue which of WG/Sninja is stronger, but WG edged it out by a hairline since their 1v1 lineup seems just slightly stronger. Who will carry harder, rak or SS? Maybe Waddles can step up into the big boy shoes and help tip the scales in Sninja's favor? Although the real question I'm interested in is when people will realize rakleader is Malakkan's alt and ban him.

6. MH-The Morian Hobgoblins just barely edged Gimli's Gamers (yes, I'm running out of ideas) out of their mines and down into Div B last season thanks to a series of boots on GG's end. This lineup seems weaker than last season's, iirc. Leopard is a decent addition, but the loss of RNK and Cluster and the unretirement of TBest will surely Sting! AI on 3 team slots will be tested to his utter limits, and he will either lead MH to another season of surviving Div A by the skins of their rotten teeth or he will fall short and be consumed by the Balrog in glorious flame. Emu Pub on 3 slots will also carry a heavy burden. The overall strength of MH's team games and 1v1 lineup just doesn't seem like it'll make the cut to me though.

7. Stats-Does anyone even remember the Corsairs of Umbar? All I remember in the movie is one scene of them sailing and the next scene related to them only showed Aragorn and co. jumping out of their hijacked ships along with the undead army. Right now, Stats have sailed merrily into Div A. I think the next time we see them, they will have been wiped out without a trace just as quickly. I feel they have neither the power nor the depth to make a dent. I mean, they even resorted to recruiting a faithless water rat like Nauz who has already managed to slink away seemingly without a care just days after the first tournament has started. Sadly, all prediction models say that Stats probably won't make it to next season.

Anyways, this was a little fun to write. Regardless of result, hope everyone has a fun, clean CL! :]
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/17/2019 05:23:27


Platinum
Level 61
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The real question is do Outlaws beat Lynx in head-to-head match-ups for the 3rd season in a row to gain a vital "Edge" (see what I did there, so funny) in the crucial relegation battle between them and Stats!
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/17/2019 08:03:22

FiveStarGeneral
Level 60
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It'd be too perfect of a world if Outlaws and Lynx would both just relegate.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/17/2019 08:33:02

[V.I.W] recruiting time! Join us !
Level 62
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VIW First... Lol, no way. If stars align we can go C as third in our Q but then Biomes Will be our gravestone.

/ since i play Eu, if we miss C i ll be one to blame /

My ptediction :

We beat Celtica

Edited 2/17/2019 08:36:07
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/17/2019 11:57:25


psykkoman
Level 59
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This was ONE! fabulously written prediction *slow clap*.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/17/2019 12:07:56


Farah♦ 
Level 60
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CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/18/2019 01:51:56

FiveStarGeneral
Level 60
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:]
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/18/2019 14:13:12


Hades
Level 63
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Is it tomorrow yet?
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/18/2019 14:17:10


Timinator • apex 
Level 65
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no, today is today. sorry.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/18/2019 17:44:34

Master Moto - モトキ
Level 61
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We will smurf soon
ONE! wrath will be swift
All these peasants thinking we aren't good
LMFAO

One will probably be first followed by lynx and outlaws rest dont matter

Edited 2/18/2019 17:46:47
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/19/2019 22:47:24


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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The results of the survey are finally here!

Division A - Predictions by rank
                  1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
Lynx          45.3% 34.4%  6.2%  1.6%  3.1%  6.2%  3.1%   2.14  1.63
ONE           35.9% 45.3% 12.5%  1.6%  3.1%  1.6%  0.0%   1.95  1.05
Outlaws        4.7% 14.1% 31.2% 25.0% 14.1%  9.4%  1.6%   3.64  1.36
SNinja         3.1%  1.6% 17.2% 29.7% 26.6% 14.1%  7.8%   4.48  1.36
WG             3.1%  1.6% 15.6% 20.3% 25.0% 28.1%  6.2%   4.72  1.40
MHunters       6.2%  1.6% 14.1% 15.6% 23.4% 23.4% 15.6%   4.81  1.65
Statisticians  1.6%  1.6%  3.1%  6.2%  4.7% 17.2% 65.6%   6.25  1.36

Division A - Head to Head higher ranked %
              Lynx ONE! Outlw SNinj   WG MHunt Stats
Lynx             /   53    83    84   88    88    91
ONE             47    /    84    94   94    89    97
Outlaws         17   16     /    66   75    72    91
SNinja          16    6    34     /   53    56    86
WG              12    6    25    47    /    53    84
MHunters        12   11    28    44    47    /    77
Statisticians    9    3     9    14   16    23     /

For the win, it's between Lynx and ONE! according to our respondents it seems. I put Lynx first in the output because they win the head to head with ONE! (second table), being predicted higher by 53% of respondents. Additionally, they also have considerably more 1st place predictions. However, some Platinum fans seemingly put Lynx quite low, with 6 respondents (almost 10%) predicting relegation versus only 1 respondent predicting relegation for ONE! resulting in ONE having a better prediction on average.
At the other end of the spectrum, Statisticians are the overwhelming favourites! However, between 3rd and 6th, which includes the last podium spot and the second relegation spot, it's pretty close. Outlaws is being predicted slightly better than SNinja, WG and M'Hunters. None of these clans have more than 40% chance to relegate according to the respondents (but all except Outlaws at least 30%), while neither has more than 50% to finish in the top 3 either, with Outlaws leading the bunch with exactly 50% and all others between 20% and 25%.
Overall, M'Hunters and Lynx are predicted more extreme, while the predictions for ONE! are most robust.



Division B - Predictions by rank
               1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
GG         54.7% 18.8% 12.5%  7.8%  3.1%  0.0%  3.1%   1.98  1.44
101st      17.2% 21.9% 23.4% 20.3%  9.4%  6.2%  1.6%   3.08  1.53
Apprentice 12.5% 26.6% 28.1% 20.3% 10.9%  1.6%  0.0%   2.95  1.25
VS          7.8% 21.9% 14.1% 25.0% 17.2%  9.4%  4.7%   3.69  1.62
FCC         4.7%  6.2%  7.8%  9.4% 29.7% 23.4% 18.8%   4.98  1.66
NWO         0.0%  3.1%  6.2%  6.2% 17.2% 42.2% 25.0%   5.64  1.28
CORP        3.1%  1.6%  7.8% 10.9% 12.5% 17.2% 46.9%   5.67  1.64

Division B - Head to Head higher ranked %
            GG 101st Appr  VS FCC NWO CORP
GG           /    73   70  81  86  97   94
101st       27     /   52  62  78  89   84
Apprentice  30    48    /  62  86  91   88
VS          19    38   38   /  78  80   80
FCC         14    22   14  22   /  62   67
NWO          3    11    9  20  38   /   55
CORP         6    16   12  20  33  45    /

GG is predicted to promote according to our respondents (70% agree), with a more than 50% chance to finish first and a head to head advantage of at least 70% against every other clan in B. It's going to be a tough fight the for the second promotion spot, with 101st and Apprentice both being predicted in the top 2 by 39% of respondents and a minor advantage for 101st in 1st place finishes and head to head (52%). Apprentice has to lower average predicted result though by virtue of 101st being projected towards the back of the pack more often.
While VS is an obvious 4th on average, actually predictions are all over the place with almost 30% chance of promotion and 14% chance of relegation. FCC, NWO and CORP mainly divide the last 3 spots among each other with FCC predicted a little more than 40% on a relegation spot, while NWO and CORP around 60%. There is a clear difference in how their predictions are spread out, with NWO a little more constant in the last 3 places, while CORP and FCC have more top 3 predictions as well.



Division Q1 - Predictions by rank
                    1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
VIW             35.9% 29.7% 17.2% 10.9%  4.7%  1.6%  0.0%   2.23  1.27
Harmony         34.4% 17.2% 15.6% 12.5%  9.4%  4.7%  6.2%   2.84  1.87
BIA             10.9% 17.2% 29.7% 15.6% 15.6%  6.2%  4.7%   3.45  1.59
ILLUMINATI       9.4% 15.6% 14.1% 23.4% 15.6% 12.5%  9.4%   3.95  1.78
Avengers         3.1% 15.6% 14.1% 31.2% 23.4%  9.4%  3.1%   3.97  1.40
Celtica          1.6%  3.1%  6.2%  4.7% 10.9% 46.9% 26.6%   5.67  1.39
Varangian Guard  4.7%  1.6%  3.1%  1.6% 20.3% 18.8% 50.0%   5.88  1.58

Division Q1 - Head to Head higher ranked %
                VIW Harmo BIA ILLUM Aveng Celti VarGu
VIW               /    53  78    81    84    91    89
Harmony          47     /  59    64    70    89    86
BIA              22    41   /    61    58    86    88
ILLUMINATI       19    36  39     /    55    77    80
Avengers         16    30  42    45     /    83    88
Celtica           9    11  14    23    17     /    58
Varangian Guard  11    14  12    20    12    42     /

There's a bit more variation in the prediction for this qualifier compared to A and B, but this makes sense since most people don't know all clans. The overall trends are quite clear though: VIW and Harmony are the clear frontrunners to fight it out in C, BIA is the best of the rest and also is predicted in the top 3 by more than 50% of respondents, inching out ILLUMINATI and Avengers. Meanwhile Celtica and Varangian Guard do not receive much love and can be happy that there is no relegation in the qualifiers.




Division Q2 - Predictions by rank
                   1     2     3     4     5     6     7   mean    sd
Blitz          84.4%  6.2%  3.1%  1.6%  3.1%  1.6%  0.0%   1.38  1.05
Hawks           1.6% 53.1% 20.3% 18.8%  1.6%  1.6%  3.1%   2.83  1.22
Wizards         9.4% 20.3% 43.8% 15.6%  4.7%  3.1%  3.1%   3.08  1.31
Discovery       1.6% 12.5% 17.2% 39.1% 23.4%  6.2%  0.0%   3.89  1.14
LEA             0.0%  6.2%  7.8% 17.2% 45.3% 20.3%  3.1%   4.75  1.15
USSR            1.6%  0.0%  4.7%  4.7% 12.5% 45.3% 31.2%   5.88  1.20
Nuke Diplomacy  1.6%  1.6%  3.1%  3.1%  9.4% 21.9% 59.4%   6.20  1.31

Division Q2 - Head to Head higher ranked %
               Blitz Hawks Wizas Disco LEA USSR NukeD
Blitz              /    92    89    95  95   95    95
Hawks              8     /    61    72  88   94    95
Wizards           11    39     /    77  83   91    92
Discovery          5    28    23     /  73   91    91
LEA                5    12    17    27   /   80    84
USSR               5     6     9     9  20    /    62
Nuke Diplomacy     5     5     8     9  16   38     /

Strangely enough, Q2 has much more robust predictions compared to Q1, and even compared to A and B. There is a clear order with Blitz on top, Hawks second and Wizards 3rd as the favourites to advance to C. Discovery at number 4 is only predicted to reach C by about 30% of respondents, LEA doesn't reach 15%, while USSR and Nuke Diplomacy are the clans that are predicted to relegate if such thing existed in the qualifiers.



Additional polling nuggets will follow in the post below!
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/19/2019 22:47:38


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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Other polling nuggets

  • Names: With 29 empty, 2 anonymous and a few fake ones, a much higher percentage was anonymous this time compared to CL9. Maybe the many facebook and other scandals did teach people a thing or two about not giving away too much information? Also, as usual there were some people pretending to be me, none of which were actually me.
  • Clans: All division A clans had at least one member filling it in, but none more than 3 non-anonymous. From B, NWO & VS had no one filling in the survey while declaring the clan. From Div Q1 and Q2: 6 clans had members filling in the survey and declaring the clan (3 from each qualifier). There were members from a few clans that do not join Clan League this season.
  • Gender: Seriously dudes? Over 60 declared that they were male with 26% prefering not to say or empty. However, despite the presence of the genders "Fizzer", "Ghost", "None of the above", "Spambot", "Thingymawut" and "Warlight player", there were no women filling in the survey...
  • Age: the majority of respondents is in their twenties or early thirties. I'm not going to bother to list all the other answers including people who recently turned 4 and aliens with ages of multiple 9's in a row (multiple).
  • Deepest thoughts:
    Division A: Outlaws and Lynx relegate. M'Hunters or WG win. Nevertheless, Lynx are the clear favourites despite some inevitable boots and Outlaws will make a serious run at the title despite their dept being exposed and M'Hunters are still ***** [redacted]. Since ONE! will under-perform and finish 3rd, Sninja can win CL11. If Stats will be 7th, but if they can get Nauz to play properly they can do great. [Note: Nauz already booted his first 2 games.] People expressed believe in Smoove, max and Waddles.
    Division B: GG wins Division B, which according to some looks better than A although VS has gone to crap with retirements, 101st is underwhelming and NWO looks good on paper but doesn't perform in CL.
    Qualifiers: Blitz will boot half their games, cheat in more than half and win C. Meanwhile, Farah is a loser, and he will stop scorekeeping and and start scorecreeping if he gets sent one more piece of underwear by MoD. In other news, Harmony has a disappointing line-up and Wizards vs. Discovery for the third spot in C should be interesting.
    Random thoughts:
    - It's unclear whether these predictions were supposed to be made on the results before or after the ethics panel gets involved. Afterwards, ONE and Lynx will be relegating because both clans are full of dirty cheaters.
    - Xenophon has 2 accounts in division A and B clans ready to boot.
    - Will platinum retire if Outlaws relegates? FIND OUT NEXT TIME ON DRAGON-BALL WZ!!!
    - One person mourns Icelandic Turtles while another thinks it's sad that Coalition Of Role Playing Friends didn't field a lineup.
    - At least one person is a zombie without thoughts.
    - Several people don't know how to spell "Statisticians" correctly.
    - And finally, one player is hopping to not disappoint. We believe in you brave Warzone bunny!


Edited 2/19/2019 22:51:16
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/19/2019 23:39:47


Toua Tokuchi
Level 54
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Nice

Edited 2/19/2019 23:40:24
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/20/2019 01:32:11


Onoma94
Level 60
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Not disappointed <3

Surprised not more people predict Apprentice to come first in B.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/20/2019 20:25:35

Meldarion
Level 60
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on the other hand there's only one person who thinks we'll relegate haha that's something at least :p

and thanks for doing this MW (:

Edited 2/20/2019 20:25:50
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 01:46:22


Platinum
Level 61
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Only 10% of the community have us relegating? After saying how Bohun literally can't speak English.. That I'm leading the EU team.. and I have Bonsai on 3 slots. Wow...
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 02:15:33


Cowboy 
Level 59
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Bohun is top 15 1v1 ladder right now, You could pull off a couple EU wins, and Bonsai looks fairly active.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 03:56:53


Xenophon 
Level 62
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I predicted Outlaws and Lynx to relegate if that makes you feel any better Plat
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 19:59:06


Math Wolf 
Level 63
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I predicted Outlaws and Lynx to relegate if that makes you feel any better Plat

You did not, you picked Stats and Lynx to relegate.
Only 1 person predicted both Lynx and Outlaws to relegate and I am certain that was not you.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 20:36:32


Cowboy 
Level 59
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Called out.
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 21:30:31


Xenophon 
Level 62
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It was definitely me
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 21:46:54


master of desaster 
Level 65
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Xeno you get snitched all the time, what's going wrong?
CL11: Predictions Thread: 2/21/2019 21:52:41


Xenophon 
Level 62
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Someone is impersonating me
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